Class 1A, Substate 4 Preview
DISTRICT 7
The favorite: The top seed in the district, Edgewood-Colesburg enters the postseason as winners of 10 of their last 12 games. The Vikings are led by Ethan Streicher (13.2) and Elliott Meyer (12.2), who combine to give them a solid inside-out tandem. Jacob Wessel has blocked 55 shots on the season, giving them an interior rim protector, and the Streicher/Dakota Funke duo each shot 37% from the arc on plenty of attempts, giving them some floor spacing ability. The Vikings went 8-1 against teams in the district, including a season split with Clayton Ridge, arguably their biggest threat in the district. Ed-Co’s win came later in the season, by 15 at home, while Clayton Ridge’s win came by 24 in the season opener.
The biggest threat: Clayton Ridge has proven capable of beating Ed-Co, with the season opening beatdown as evidence. Robby Sweers (19.8) may be the single best player in the district, and he could carry the Eagles to the district crown. Jace Moore (15.9) gives them a solid No. 2 option, and both are capable of controlling the glass. They’ve gone 7-1 against teams in the district, including a late season 13-point win over likely semifinal opponent, Turkey Valley.
The dark horse: Five players average between 7.0 and 10.4 points for Turkey Valley, led by Ethan Leibold (10.4, 6.0 rebounds). The Trojans allow just 50.3 points a game, so they’ll be in just about every contest they play.
Players to watch
Ethan Streicher, Edgewood-Colesburg, 2019
Elliott Meyer, Edgewood-Colesburg, 2017
Robby Sweers, Clayton Ridge, 2017
Jace Moore, Clayton Ridge, 2017
Blake Wettleson, Postville, 2018
DISTRICT 8
The favorite: There isn’t a bigger favorite in any substate in any class than North Linn is here. The Lynx have the state’s most efficient offense, shooting 54.5% from the floor and they’re averaging 81.3 points a night, while allowing just 36.6, good for No. 2 and No. 1 in Class 1A, respectively. Stat sheet stuffing sophomore point guard Jake Hilmer is giving Joe Smoldt a run for his money as 1A’s best player. Hilmer is averaging 21.8 points (on 60-44-86 shooting splits) to go with 10.5 assists and 4.5 steals a game. Ryan Miller (19.6) and David Seber (16.3) flank him in the backcourt and have combined to shoot 44% from the arc on 287 attempts. This group has already beaten their biggest competition, Prince of Peace, by 14 at PoP, early this season. They’ve only gotten better since then. Barring an injury to Hilmer (because they’ve already proven capable of dealing with a Miller injury), the Lynx will play for a chance to go to the state tournament.
The biggest threat: Prince of Peace went 8-2 against teams in the district, including a season sweep over likely district semifinal opponent Calamus-Wheatland. The Irish are led by Seth Moeller (22.0), who may be the best player in the district outside of Hilmer. A versatile scorer, he excels at getting to the rim and finishing. Aeden Marlowe (8.9 rebounds a game) adds some toughness on the interior, and he and Devin Bilek have each blocked 30 shots this season, giving them some paint presence. They gave North Linn their closest game this season (a 14-point home loss), and if anyone in the district can play with the Lynx, it’s this group.
The dark horse: In another district, there’s a chance Calamus-Wheatland could make a run and win the district. In this one, it’s a long shot. The Warriors were swept in the season series by Prince of Peace, their likely semifinal opponent, and lost by 31 to North Linn, who most assuredly would be the final opponent. They’re led by Brett Kelting (16.7, 9.4 rebounds), and have five players averaging at least eight points a game. But they’ll need to get a huge effort out of Kelting, and find a way to slow the game substantially, if they want to pull off two big upsets and win this district.
Players to watch
Jake Hilmer, North Linn, 2019
David Seber, North Linn, 2019
Ryan Miller, North Linn, 2018
Seth Moeller, Prince of Peace, 2017
Brett Kelting, Calamus-Wheatland, 2017
Logan Miller, Easton Valley, 2018
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Edgewood-Colesburg vs. North Linn
No disrespect to Ed-Co, but there is almost no chance that anyone outside of North Linn is coming out of this substate. This is a rematch of a game from early in the season in which the Lynx won by 44. Will it be closer than that one? Probably. But Hilmer and company punch their ticket to state convincingly here.