12 Sub .500 Teams You Don’t Want to See in Your Substate
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Groupings for districts and substates will be released in the next few weeks, with assignments for Classes 1A and 2A set to be released on Friday, January 21st, and assignments for the larger two classes coming on the 28th. Upsets…
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Continue ReadingGroupings for districts and substates will be released in the next few weeks, with assignments for Classes 1A and 2A set to be released on Friday, January 21st, and assignments for the larger two classes coming on the 28th. Upsets happen every year in the postseason and we’re taking a look at three teams currently below .500 in each class that you probably don’t want to see in your grouping when they are released. (Records are current as of 1/14/22.)
1A
Council Bluffs St. Albert (4-7)
The Falcons are kind of a cheat code for this article, but if I were a 1A school in southwest Iowa, I certainly wouldn’t want to see them in my district. Playing in the Hawkeye Ten, they play against primarily 3A schools throughout the year, which usually leads to a record below .500, but they also generally make pretty deep postseason runs. They’ve been a solid offensive team so far, averaging 57.2 points a game, but are giving up 60.9 points a night. SO far, they have played two games against 1A competition, a 71-55 win over Ankeny Christian, and a 83-42 loss to AHSTW, one of the best teams in 1A. This is a balanced offensive team with three players averaging in double-figures – Carter White (13.4), DJ Weilage (12.7), and Colin Lillie (11.8) – while Chase Morton (9.2) is another solid scorer. They protect the ball well (11.3 turnovers a game) and have a potent offensive attack. When they get back into 1A competition, they should be a bit better on the defensive end, and playing against a much tougher schedule than the majority of the teams they’ll see in postseason play will get them ready for another deep run.
Earlham (3-7)
To date, the Cardinals haven’t played a game against a 1A school, and they’ve been largely competitive, with four of their seven losses coming by single digits. In sophomore guard Kallin Nicholson (11.4, 40.6 3P%), they have a knockdown shooter that they can pair with a pair of experienced pieces in senior forward Dominic Braet (11.4, 9.0 rebounds) and guard Darrell Matchem Darrell Matchem 5'7" | PG Earlham | 2022 State IA (8.5, 3.0 assists). Braet is a physical presence in the paint who rebounds well and is the type of player an offense can play through, while Matchem is small but lightning-quick and can get to the rim while also being a pest with his on-ball defense. The Cards have been pretty solid defensively, allowing just 53.1 points a game, and playing against some good competition in league play (Panorama, Pleasantville, Van Meter, Des Moines Christian, ACGC, Madrid are all solid teams) should prepare them well for a postseason win or two.
Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn (4-6)
Despite a 4-6 record, the Hawks actually have a positive point differential through ten games (+0.3). They’ve had narrow losses to quality teams like Sioux Central (68-63) and Gehlen Catholic (62-58), and they have a pair of dominant scoring threats who can take over games. Junior big man Lance Berends Lance Berends 6'4" | PF HMS | 2023 State IA (21.2, 13.5 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) is a big, physical presence in the paint on both ends of the floor and is the type of player who could take over a postseason game with his ability to protect the rim and get opposing teams into early foul trouble. Junior wing Kooper Ebel (20.0) has stepped up in a major way this year to provide perimeter scoring punch, and senior lead guard Mason Brinkman (3.3, 4.0 assists) isn’t much of a scoring threat, but he’s an experienced guard who limits mistakes. The Hawks don’t shoot the ball well from deep (28.5% as a team), but they have two pieces who can take over games, and that will be beneficial.
2A
New Hampton (5-7)
In senior guard Drake Wemark Drake Wemark 6'3" | SF New Hampton | 2022 State IA (19.4, 7.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists) and junior wing Carter Steinlage Carter Steinlage 6'3" | SF New Hampton | 2023 State IA (14.4), the Chickasaws have a duo of high-powered scoring threats who can take over a game and lead New Hampton to some wins and a district final appearance. Wemark is the type of athletic guard who can get to the rim, dominate the game on the defensive end, and distribute to his teammates. He’s capable of dominating a game without scoring. This team doesn’t shoot the ball well from the arc (21.5% as a team), but they are a fairly efficient offense that is predicated on getting to the rim, using their athleticism to their advantage. They’ve played just one game against 2A competition so far this year, and they won by 15 against Waukon. A step down in competition come postseason time will be welcomed.
Cascade (4-10)
The Cougars are getting better by the day under second-year coach Nate McMullen, and they’ll be a viable threat come postseason play. They play a tough 2-3 zone that has active guards at the top of it and a physical presence in the paint in Cole McDermott (16.6, 7.4 rebounds). An efficient 6-5 big who has great hands, soft touch, and good footwork, he’s the type of forward who can control a game and keep the Cougars competitive. Gavin Manternach (7.5) and Cass Hoffman (6.9) are capable perimeter options, and they’ve gotten a boost from freshman guard Jackson Lieurance. A team that has a dominant big man and that plays a tough 2-3 can be difficult to prepare for.
Spirit Lake (3-9)
According to BCMoore’s power rankings system, the Indians have played the third most difficult schedule in 2A, which will prepare them for postseason play. They’ve played tight games against quality competition with a 7-point loss to Unity Christian, 2-point loss to Rock Valley, and a 9-point setback against Estherville Lincoln Central. They’re led by 6-4 junior forward Tyler Voss (15.2, 8.8 rebounds), who is shooting 67% from the floor. He does a great job pounding the offensive glass, and they are able to surround him with good shooters who can get hot and lead this team to some wins. They shoot 36.5% from the arc as a team, which ranks 4th in 2A.
3A
MOC-Floyd Valley (4-7)
Three of the Dutchmen’s losses have come by two possessions or less, and they actually have a positive (+0.4) point differential on the season. While they play against primarily 2A schools in the Siouxland Conference, they play against really good 2A schools, and may actually benefit by getting up into 3A competition in the northwest part of the state. They have a quartet of double-figure scorers in Jesse Van Kalsbeek (15.4), Luke Korver Luke Korver 6'1" | SG MOC-Floyd Valley | 2023 State IA (15.2, 51.1 3P%), Ayden Klein Ayden Klein 5'11" | SG MOC-Floyd Valley | 2023 State IA (11.4, 44.0 3P%), and Carter Aalbers (11.1, 57.5 3P%), and this is a fantastic 3-point shooting team (48.4% as a team). Having that kind of shooting makes them dangerous on any given night, and they have a number of weapons who can beat teams. The key for them will be the defensive end of the floor, as they’ve given up nearly 70 points a game in their losses. Still, with the number of talented shooters that MOC-FV can put on the floor, they’ll be dangerous in any one-game setting.
Sergeant Bluff-Luton (4-7)
The Warriors have qualified for five straight state tournaments and will have a chance at making in six straight. Coach Adam Vander Schaaf always has SBL peaking come postseason time, and despite a number of new faces on the roster, this year could be the same. Five juniors lead the team in scoring, led by Tyler Smith Tyler Smith 5'10" | SG Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 2023 State IA (15.0) and Dylon Schaap (10.0). There isn’t a single senior on the roster, and they lack the size and length that previous Warriors teams have had, but this is a solid defensive team that will benefit from playing against a largely 4A schedule come postseason play.
Western Dubuque (3-7)
Like Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Western Dubuque plays in a 4A league (the MVC), so they’ll be well prepared for postseason play against WaMaC and Northeast Iowa Conference teams that they will likely be grouped with. All seven of their losses so far have come by single digits, and their point differential is just -0.8. They have a trio of double-figure scorers in senior guard Nick Bryant Nick Bryant 5'9" | PG Western Dubuque | 2022 State IA (13.8), forward Carson Schute Carson Schute 6'2" | SG Western Dubuque | 2022 State IA (12.7), and junior guard Daviyon Gaston (12.6). Bryant, who also leads the team in assists, is a veteran lead guard who can score or facilitate, Schute is a stretch-4 who can space the floor, and Gaston is an athletic, slashing wing who has stepped into a solid tertiary scoring role. The Bobcats will be well prepared for postseason play.
4A
Centennial (3-6)
Five of the Jaguars’ losses have come against teams that are currently ranked in the 4A top 10, including three against the top 2 teams in the rankings. So, while they may be overmatched against the likes of Waukee Northwest, Johnston, or Ames, they should be able to compete against just about anyone else that they could potentially get paired with. In senior guard Chris Louis Chris Louis 6'0" | SG Centennial | 2022 State IA (13.0) and Caden Kelling Caden Kelling 5'10" | SG Centennial | 2022 State IA (10.1), they have a pair of quick, experienced guards who can break down a defense and get to the rim, and they’re also solid defensively. Sophomore bigs Reece Robinson Reece Robinson 6'7" | PF Saint Ignatius | 2024 State OH (10.3, 6.4 rebounds) and Chase Schutty (5.0, 6.1 rebounds) give them some size and rebounding in the paint, and Jackson Snyder Jackson Snyder 6'0" | SG Centennial | 2022 State IA (8.5) is another experienced piece who provides athleticism and physicality on the wing. They’ve done a pretty good job limiting turnovers, and as the schedule eases up in a bit in the next few weeks, we could see this team starting to peak towards the end of the season.
Dowling Catholic (3-6)
After losing their top 10 scorers from last year’s team, the Maroons were expected to take a step back. But, paced by junior guard Andrew Mauro Andrew Mauro 6'1" | SG Dowling Catholic | 2023 State IA (16.9), they’ve actually been much more competitive than expected, currently holding a +2.9 point differential despite the 3-6 record. Mauro, a physical guard who thrives on his ability to get to the rim both in transition and in the halfcourt, has been a revelation for Dowling. Seniors Charlie Stewart Charlie Stewart 6'3" | SG Dowling Catholic | 2022 State IA (11.9, 5.7 rebounds), Carson Brown Carson Brown 6'2" | SG Dowling Catholic | 2022 State IA (8.3, 5.3 rebounds), and Jaylen Pettus McMullen Jaylen Pettus McMullen 6'3" | PF Dowling Catholic | 2022 State IA (5.6, 6.2 rebounds) have been really strong contributors as well. This team isn’t efficient (36.7 FG%), but they’re athletic, they defend, and they rebound the ball on both ends of the floor at a high level, getting extra possessions. Under Mike O’Connor, the Maroons generally started peaking in early February; we’ll see if that is the case under Clay Thielking as well.
Bettendorf (4-7)
In sophomore wing Caden Wilkins Caden Wilkins 6'7" | SF Bettendorf | 2024 State #196 Nation IA (17.5), the Bulldogs have one of the best pure scoring threats in 4A, which will make them dangerous. They’re a strong defensive team, allowing just 53.0 points a game, which ranks 4th in 4A, and they’ve been very competitive in every game they’ve played so far this season (even in a 15-point loss to Central DeWitt, they were tied at the half). Wilkins, a 6-6 wing, is a confident player who is seemingly improving every night, and this is always a disciplined, athletic group that is going to pound the offensive glass hard (11.4 offensive boards a game, a 41.4% offensive rebounding rate). Athleticism, defense, and a star means that they’re not going to go down quietly.