Class 3A State Tournament Preview

Drew #1 seed: Ballard (23-1) About the Bombers: The Bombers entered the season as our top-ranked team in 3A, and they’ve done nothing to change that opinion. The top scoring offense in 3A (72.4) and second-best scoring defense (42.9), they’ve lost just once this year, an overtime loss to Carroll. A veteran team, they’re led by senior forward Connor Drew Connor Drew 6'6" | PF Ballard | 2021 State IA (15.6, 9.0 rebounds), a versatile big who can score inside and out and dominate the glass. Junior guard Ashton Hermann Ashton Hermann 6'4" | SG Ballard | 2022 State IA (15.7) leads the team in scoring and is a major disruptor on the defensive end, swiping 3.5 steals a game. Senior lead guard Mason Murphy Mason Murphy 5'9" | PG Ballard | 2021 State IA (11.9, 4.8 assists) is a veteran presence in the backcourt, while senior wing Isaiah Peasley (6.4, 44.1 3P%) gives them some shooting. Finally, junior big man Kale Krogh Kale Krogh 6'6" | C Ballard | 2022 State IA (7.4, 1.7 blocks) is a big, physical force in the paint who makes life difficult for opposing forwards. This group is big, long, athletic, experienced and skilled. Why they can win it all: They’ve been excellent on both ends of the floor this year, entered the year as the favorite and have done nothing this year to make us think otherwise about that choice. They’re balanced and versatile. Chances they win it all: 16%. While we consider Ballard to be the favorite here, it’s by a very slim margin in a loaded 3A field. Nobody can coast through a game next week in this 3A tournament.   #2 seed: Pella (22-2) About the Dutch: Once again, the up-tempo Dutch have one of the state’s highest scoring offenses, averaging 71.0 points a game, which ranks second in 3A. They’re led by senior guard Grant Nelson Grant Nelson 6'1" | SF Pella | 2021 State IA (17.6), who leads the 3A field in made 3-pointers and he’s knocking them down at a ridiculous 46.2% clip. Junior wing Karl Miller Karl Miller 6'4" | SF Pella | 2022 State IA (16.2) is finally healthy and playing up to his potential, emerging as a dominant scoring wing who can really shoot it. He ranks second behind Nelson in the 3A field in 3-point makes, and he’s shooting 42.7% on his attempts. Newton transfer Noah Allen Noah Allen 5'10" | PG Pella | 2022 State IA (12.0, 43.2 3P%) gives the Dutch yet another excellent 3-point shooter. This group is deep and athletic, and they’re going to throw a number of different defensive and zone-press looks at opposing teams to try and get the game sped up to their liking. Why they can win it all: They have a bevy of 3-point shooting threats, and they can really fill it up. Their athleticism and depth could be a major factor as well. Chances they win it all: 15%. They have a really tricky opening round game against a disciplined Monticello team that will try to slow the game down to a halt. If they can get by that, they’ll get a team that plays in a 4A league in either Western Dubuque or Sergeant Bluff-Luton. The road is not easy, but this group is capable.   #3 seed: Western Dubuque (18-4) About the Bobcats: The ’Cats rolled through their substate, winning the three games by a combined 79 points. Playing in the 4A MVC certainly prepared this group well for postseason action, and they were excellent in that traditionally strong league this year. They’re led by senior forward Dylan Johnson Dylan Johnson 6'6" | SF Western Dubuque | 2021 State IA (16.6, 7.6 rebounds), a versatile playmaker who can stretch the floor and facilitate the offense. He routinely brings the ball up the floor for the Cats, which is a rarity for a 6-6 kid at this level. Fellow senior guard Garrett Baumhover Garrett Baumhover 6'0" | PG Western Dubuque | 2021 State IA (15.2, 5.5 assists) is a streaky shooter but has had some massive games this year, and junior Nick Bryant Nick Bryant 5'9" | PG Western Dubuque | 2022 State IA (11.5, 40.2 3P%) gives them some additional shooting. They’ve shown the ability to win games in a variety of different styles, which bodes well for the tournament. Why they can win it all: They’ve seen plenty of great teams this year and have had a ton of success against a very strong schedule. Johnson is a difference-maker with his size and versatility, and they take great care of the ball. Chances they win it all: 15%. Consider the Bobcats to be one of the favorites here in this loaded field. Their versatility on both ends should be on full display, and Johnson and Baumhover are talented and experienced.   #4 seed: Dallas Center-Grimes (20-3) About the Mustangs: The Mustangs are home of the best backcourt in 3A basketball, with their three-headed monster of juniors Cole Glasgow Cole Glasgow 6'3" | SG Dallas Center-Grimes | 2022 State IA (17.0) and Bo Huston (12.5, 52.2 3P%), and senior Luke Rankin Luke Rankin 5'10" | PG Dallas Center-Grimes | 2021 State IA (13.0, 8.4 assists). Glasgow has emerged as one of the top prospects in Iowa’s 2022 class, and he holds a handful of mid-major offers to prove it. A talented scorer, he’s a threat to erupt for 30 on any given night with his ability to score from all three levels. Rankin is one of the best pure point guards in the state, a remarkably talented passer who sees the floor extremely well and does an excellent job protecting the ball (just 1.4 turnovers a game). Huston has become one of the state’s best shooters and is an excellent fit alongside the versatile Glasgow and pass-first Rankin. Senior big man Alex Thomas Alex Thomas 6'5" | PF Dallas Center-Grimes | 2021 State IA gives them some size and athleticism in the paint.  Why they can win it all: Guard play wins in high school basketball, and Dallas Center-Grimes has excellent guard play. Chances they win it all: 15%. As we’ve noted, this is a loaded 3A field, and we consider DC-G to be one of the co-favorites among this talented group of teams. If Glasgow, Huston and Rankin can get hot for three straight games, there is no reason they can’t win it all.   Ellis #5 seed: Assumption (18-6) About the Knights: Led by the most highly-regarded prospect in the 3A field in Texas signee Emarion Ellis Emarion Ellis 6'4" | SF Assumption | 2021 State #141 Nation IA (16.4), the Knights have to be one of the best 5-seeds in tournament history. They’re dealt with injuries to Ellis and junior wing Noah Mack Noah Mack 6'0" | SG Assumption | 2022 State IA (11.7, 40.6 3P%), the team’s two best players, this year and they’re both back in the lineup and this team is playing at a really high level on both ends of the floor. The experience that the Assumption role players gained in Ellis and Mack’s absence has been invaluable, giving them more depth and versatility. Senior guard Dayne Hodge Dayne Hodge 5'11" | PG Assumption | 2021 State IA (9.0) is an excellent defender who will likely be tasked with the Cole Glasgow Cole Glasgow 6'3" | SG Dallas Center-Grimes | 2022 State IA assignment in the opening round. Why they can win it all: They have the best individual player in the 3A field in Ellis, and if the role players like JJ Stratman and Matt Tallman play like they did in the substate final win over Mount Vernon, this team is more than capable of taking home the title. Chances they win it all: 15%. Playing in the 4A-dominant MAC gives the Knights an additional little boost. We had high expectations for this group heading into the year, and while they endured a bit of a rough stretch during the Ellis and Mack injuries, they’re playing excellent ball now and have to be considered one of the favorites in the 3A field, despite entering as the 5-seed.    Majouk #6 seed: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (16-7) About the Warriors: Coach Adam Vander Schaaf always has the Warriors peaking late in the year, and this year was no exception, as they’ve won 10 straight heading into the tournament en route to their fifth straight appearance. The top four scorers for SB-L are seniors - Jake Layman Jake Layman 6'7" | SF Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 2021 State IA (11.6), Majok Majouk Majok Majouk 6'7" | SF Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 2021 State IA (10.4), Nick Muller (8.4) and Brady Schaap (8.2), giving them an experienced, balanced core. A strong defensive team, they allow just 45.0 points a game, which ranks third in 3A, despite playing in a 4A league. The 6-8 Layman and 6-10 Majouk are both headed to play college ball at D2 Southwest Minnesota State. Why they can win it all: Vander Schaaf has established himself as one of the best coaches in the state, and he’ll get this group to compete on the defensive end and make things difficult for their opponents. A veteran, senior-laden roster that has length and talent. Chances they win it all: 10%. The question for this group will be whether or not they can score enough to win three games. The defensive end of the floor shouldn’t be an issue.   Recker #7 seed: Monticello (22-0) About the Panthers: An elite defensive team, Monticello is allowing just 34.5 points a game. Some doubted this group despite the undefeated regular season, since they play in a 2A conference, but the Panthers responded in a big way in the postseason, defeating Vinton-Shellsburg 56-26, Central DeWItt 54-37 and Solon 45-39. All five starters from last year’s 2A state tournament team returned and they’re hungry to make a run in the 3A field next week. The Panthers are led by 6-6 combo forward Justin Recker Justin Recker 6'5" | PF Monticello | 2021 State IA (14.6, 7.1 rebounds) and sophomore lead guard Tate Petersen Tate Petersen 5'11" | PG Monticello | 2023 State IA (11.0, 38.0 3P%), but this is a balanced starting five that has a ton of experience playing together and they work really well as a unit. They’re a team that likes to take their time on the offensive end, swinging the ball around and really making the other team defend and looking for a great shot. In their substate final win over Solon, no bench players played. They share the ball well, dishing out 19.7 assists a game and they play excellent, disciplined team defense. Why they can win it all: Games at the state tournament tend to slow down, and Monti is certainly comfortable playing at a deliberate pace. An elite defensive team with a lot of experience, they won’t back down from anyone. Chances they win it all: 10%. Their first-round game is going to be very interesting, as they want to slow it down and Pella wants to play at a break-neck pace. Whoever determines the tempo there will win.    Toebe #8 seed: Clear Lake (21-2) About the Lions: The Lions have lost just twice this year, a 54-46 loss to Humboldt on December 11, and a 4-point setback to Algona on February 12. They average 63 points a game and are led by a dynamic inside-out duo of senior forward Andrew Formanek Andrew Formanek 6'6" | PF Clear Lake | 2021 State IA (17.8, 13.1 rebounds) and junior guard Carson Toebe Carson Toebe 6'3" | PG Clear Lake | 2022 State IA (18.9, 4.2 assists). Formanek is an excellent big on both ends of the floor whose constant activity makes him a difficult matchup, while Toebe is a skilled lead guard who was a starter as a freshman on the Lions last state tournament team. The emerge of sophomore point guard Travaughn Luyobya (4.8, 5.6 assists) has allowed the Lions to occasionally move Toebe off the ball and give him more room to operate.  Why they can win it all: The Formanek-Toebe tandem is one of the best tandems in the field and if the role players step up and give them some good production all week, they can make a run. Chances they win it all: 4%. They’re one of the best 8-seeds we can remember, but the road to the title as an 8-seed is really difficult.    Staff Picks Tony Quarterfinals: Ballard, Assumption, Monticello, Western Dubuque Semifinals: Ballard, Western Dubuque Champion: Ballard   Josh Quarterfinals: Ballard, Dallas Center-Grimes, Pella, Western Dubuque Semifinals: Dallas Center-Grimes, Western Dubuque Champion: Western Dubuque   Kegan Quarterfinals: Ballard, Assumption, Monticello, Western Dubuque Semifinals: Ballard, Monticello Champion: Ballard