Playoff Preview: 3A-7

  Drew The favorite: Ballard opened the season as the top-ranked team in 3A, and the Bombers have spent more time atop the rankings than any other team this year. Their lone loss came to a top-5 Carroll team, by one, in overtime, and they’ve absolutely dominated the rest of the schedule, with only one other game decided by fewer than 11 points. A state semifinalist last year, Ballard returned their top four scorers from that group and picked up right where they left off, with 3A’s top offense (72.3 points a game) and #2 defense (43.2). They’re led by senior forward Connor DrewConnorDrew6'6" | PFBallard | 2021StateIA (15.1, 8.6 rebounds), a versatile combo forward who can score inside and out, handle the ball and dominate the glass. He’ll play college ball at Winona State. Junior guard Ashton HermannAshtonHermann6'3" | SGBallard | 2022StateIA (16.1, 3.7 steals) is the leading scorer, a dynamic, athletic player on both ends of the floor who can score from all three levels, and they’ve gotten improved offensive production out of senior guard Mason MurphyMasonMurphy5'9" | PGBallard | 2021StateIA (12.0, 4.8 assists, 37.3 3P%), who has emerged as a solid shooting threat and a great facilitator. Junior big man Kale KroghKaleKrogh6'5" | CBallard | 2022StateIA (7.8) will be one of the more coveted offensive line prospects in the state and is a big, physical presence in the paint with great hands. This group is excellent on both ends of the floor and has gone 10-0 against teams within this substate. It would be a major, major upset for the Bombers not to come out of this group.  The biggest threat: Winterset has limped to the finish line of this season, losing four straight heading into postseason play, but the Huskies gave Ballard one of their closest games of the year a week ago, losing 69-58. A young team led by three juniors, they’re led in scoring by Levi Gurwell (17.0, 3.1 assists). Dawson ForgyDawsonForgy5'11" | PGWinterset | 2022StateIA (11.9, 5.1 assists) is a talented lead guard who distributes it well, and Nathan Avery (10.6) has given them some solid production on the perimeter as well. This group shares the ball well (18.0 assists a game), but they’ll need to play a pretty much flawless game to beat Ballard.  The dark horse: Efficient sophomore wing Colby CollisonColbyCollison6'2" | SFBondurant-Farrar | 2023StateIA (18.8, 59.4 FG%) leads a Bondurant-Farrar team that split with Winterset, their likely semifinal opponent. The Bluejays were dominated by Ballard in both meetings this year, but anything can happen in postseason play, and if they could slow the game down with long possessions, they could make something happen.  Players to watch 2021 Connor DrewConnorDrew6'6" | PFBallard | 2021StateIA, Ballard 2022 Ashton HermannAshtonHermann6'3" | SGBallard | 2022StateIA, Ballard 2021 Mason MurphyMasonMurphy5'9" | PGBallard | 2021StateIA, Ballard 2022 Levi Gurwell, Winterset 2022 Dawson ForgyDawsonForgy5'11" | PGWinterset | 2022StateIA, Winterset 2022 Nathan Avery, Winterset 2022 Jevin SullivanJevinSullivan6'5" | SGNorth Polk | 2022StateIA, North Polk 2023 Colby CollisonColbyCollison6'2" | SFBondurant-Farrar | 2023StateIA, Bondurant-Farrar 2021 Tanner HenningsenTannerHenningsen6'4" | SFGilbert | 2021StateIA, Gilbert 2022 Colin Memmer, Nevada   SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION Ballard vs. Winterset This is one of the easiest picks in any class. Ballard is the top-ranked team in 3A, and they’ve swept Winterset this year, winning handily in both games. It would take a Herculean effort for the Huskies to notch this upset. Ballard gets to Des Moines for the third straight year, with their eyes on Friday night.