Best Chance to Knock Off a One-Seed in Sectionals (D2)
Friday night’s D1 action showed that blue bloods and one-seeds can beat up on five-win teams. Saturday’s game slate showed that those same teams can fall in cupcake games, as Madison East and Racine Park were upended by Cinderellas in…
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Continue ReadingFriday night’s D1 action showed that blue bloods and one-seeds can beat up on five-win teams. Saturday’s game slate showed that those same teams can fall in cupcake games, as Madison East and Racine Park were upended by Cinderellas in round two.
Can the latter happen again in Sectionals? And what teams are most apt to topple a bracket behemoth?
1.) Green Bay Southwest versus 2.) Kaukauna
Upsets disheveled a few brackets, but the bookends of sectional two are chalk, as two-seeded Kaukauna and one-seeded Green Bay Southwest will match up in sectionals.
As for Southwest, their route through the postseason runs through Kaukauna for the second consecutive season, but their footing on the bracket has flip-flopped. Last season Kaukauna was slotted as a one-seed, and they ended up seeing fourth-seeded Southwest in round two. The Ghosts would lead a barrage of offense and pesky defense to a 40 point victory. That game was about a year away from being competitive, as an offseason of roster turnover changed things and Southwest is now favored slightly. But in a tournament setting that’s cut and trimmed for upsets, I’d still put all my eggs in the basket of a Kaukauna upset.
Here are three reasons why…
1.) Roster to roster comparisons favor the Ghosts
Both teams play just five or six, so we’re only comparing each starting five.
PG – Keaton Ferris (Kaukauna) versus Owen Stieber (Southwest):
Ferris is averaging three more assists and 3.9 more points per game while providing a strong perimeter presence. Stieber is the ideal point guard for a roster with multiple scoring threats, but Ferris is better statistically.
SG – Brayden Ivory (Kaukauna) versus Carson Landry (Southwest):
These two “glue guys” are virtually the same player. To show that, let’s compare three major statistical categories.
Points: Ivory – 10.4, Landry – 10.3
Steals: Ivory – 1.0, Landry – 1.1
Assists: Ivory – 3.0, Landry – 3.0
There’s a huge advantage to be had if either of these two can elevate their game past their statistical norm, as Ivory has done twice last month with a 17 and 19 point game.
SF – Logan Jedwabny (Kaukauna) versus Lucas Stieber (Southwest):
Both of these guys are pure scorers, Jedwabny’s just more elite. That’s not to say that Stieber hasn’t been a constant threat on offense, as he’s putting up 12.9 points per game, but there have been multiple nights (see his 32 point game versus Pulaski) where Jedwadny’s shooting makes Kaukauna’s offense unguardable.
PF – Donovan Ivory (Kaukauna) versus Will Pytleski (Southwest):
This one’s a draw. We’re looking at two guys that pack the same type of explosiveness on offense, though their respective play styles differ on that end. Donovan Ivory is the lankier athlete and natural paint finisher, while Pytleski scores more from the perimeter.
If we’re being nitpicky, then I’ll admit Ivory has a two-inch height advantage that’ll be a factor when he’s playing in the paint.
C – Jacob Newhouse (Kaukauna) versus Ian Way (Southwest):
Newhouse is listed as 6’5 (he may be a little taller now), while Way is 6’4. Newhouse is also averaging eight boards a night while Way is putting up just 2.5. Expect the Kaukauna big to dominate the rebounding column.
Big Picture: Both rosters are relatively similar. It’s the differences, some nitpicky, some more significant, that’ll give Kaukauna the edge.
2.) Southwest doesn’t dominate playoff games as Kaukauna has
Kaukauna has a stranglehold on this bracket, and it’s showed in their margin of victory. The Ghosts won by 40 points over Green Bay West and 21 over Pulaski, leaving no doubt that they deserved to be a top seed. With Southwest, there wasn’t that same feeling. They could only top tenth-seeded Ashwaubenon by 11 points and fourth-seeded West De Pere by 10 points.
3.) Kaukauna is battle-tested
This is more about Kaukauna being battle-tested than Southwest lacking quality wins. The Ghosts play in the Fox Valley Conference, meaning they’ve had pit-stops with D1 schools like Kimberly (one-seed), Appleton West (two-seed), Neenah (four-seed). They also played Marian Catholic (IL) in the non-conference. Southwest lacked those toughening games, their only elite opponent being Sheboygan North (six-seed, D1) who was clobbered in the second round by Brookfield East.