Postseason Preview: Class 4A, Substate 8
Picking the first round games Fort Dodge at Ankeny Centennial: Look for this one to be a grind-it-out game, as neither team is dynamic offensively (Fort Dodge ranks 43rd at 49.2 points a game, Centennial 35th at 54.0), and…
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Picking the first round games
Fort Dodge at Ankeny Centennial: Look for this one to be a grind-it-out game, as neither team is dynamic offensively (Fort Dodge ranks 43rd at 49.2 points a game, Centennial 35th at 54.0), and both are quality defensive teams (Fort Dodge 19th, 55.9; Centennial 10th, 52.6). Centennial big man Cody McCullough (12.1) taking on Fort Dodge’s Jordan Jackson (15.2) will be the key matchup in this one. McCullough has been highly efficient (61.8 FG%) and is dominant on the glass on both ends of the floor. If he’s able to control the paint and the glass, the Jaguars should have the edge here. Micah Johnson (9.8) gives them another solid big body, and they’ll really need to bang it inside here, as they’re shooting just 21.4% from the arc as a team this season. Luckily for them, the Dodgers really don’t have much size, and they should be able to do whatever they want here. Expect a low-scoring, low-possession game, but the edge goes to Centennial with their size advantage and playing at home.
Our pick: Ankeny Centennial 48, Fort Dodge 42
Des Moines East at Des Moines Hoover: This is the most down Hoover team in a while, but the Huskies should have no issues in this opener against East, who enters postseason play with a 1-19 record and allowing a 4A worst 77.4 points a game. The Huskies have a trio of high-scoring guards in Adam Jackson (17.8), Hosea Treadwell (17.6) and Manny Austin (14.6), and the Scarlets won’t provide too much resistance against them. This should be a comfortable win for Hoover, setting them up for a semifinal meeting with Johnston.
Our pick: Des Moines Hoover 72, Des Moines East 50
Previewing the semifinals
Ankeny Centennial at Waukee: Waukee was looking like the team to beat in 4A in mid-January, then were dealt a major blow when they lost star point guard Noah Hart to an ACL injury in their game against Dowling on January 15th. The Warriors suffered their only two losses of the season, to Linn-Mar and Des Moines North, down the stretch, but still look like one of the top 3-4 teams in the class, and have to be considered a heavy favorite here, having already beaten the Jaguars by 23 without Hart. Senior big man Dylan Jones (14.5) has had an eye-poppingly efficient season, shooting 76.2% from the floor and blocking 62 shots. He’ll be the focal point for opposing teams on both ends of the floor. Tucker DeVries (10.7, 56 3PM, 43.8%), son of Drake coach Darian DeVries, has been outstanding for the Warriors, and Michael Vicente (8.6, 45.0 3P%), Payton Sandfort (6.0, 40.9 3P%) and Andrew Curran (4.8, 31.4%) give them more shooting. This group, however, is really going to be leaning on their strong defense to win games. They rank 3rd in the class in scoring defense, allowing just 44.7 points a game, and while that number has gone up a bit without Hart (48.1 points a game), they’re still really strong on that end of the floor, and will suffocate teams there. They shouldn’t have many issues here.
Our pick: Waukee 66, Ankeny Centennial 48
Des Moines Hoover at Johnston: Johnston enters postseason play having won eight of their last 10 games. The Dragons are led by Peyton Williams (11.2) and Reid Grant (10.0), while seven other players average between 2.6 and 8.7 points a game, giving them a fairly deep rotation. Williams and Max Roquet (8.7) have been really strong on the offensive glass, and should be able to take advantage of a smaller Hoover team in that respect. Hoover is going to try and slow this game down, in typical Hoover style, but that kind of plays into Johnston’s hands this year, with their ability to control the glass on both ends of the floor and dump the ball into a dominant big man in Williams.
Our pick: Johnston 55, Des Moines Hoover 48
Players to watch
2019 Dylan Jones, Waukee
2021 Tucker DeVries, Waukee
2020 Cody McCullough, Ankeny Centennial
2020 Micah Johnson, Ankeny Centennial
2019 Adam Jackson, Des Moines Hoover
2019 Hosea Treadwell, Des Moines Hoover
2021 Manny Austin, Des Moines Hoover
2020 Willie Taylor, Des Moines East
2019 Jordan Jackson, Fort Dodge
2021 Reid Grant, Johnston
2019 Peyton Williams, Johnston
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Waukee vs. Johnston
In this game between a pair of top nine defenses in 4A (Waukee 3rd, 44.7 points a game; Johnston 9th, 51.8), don’t expect to see much scoring. Waukee has been one of the best teams all year, and despite the loss of Noah Hart, they’re still the best team in this substate. The Warriors grind out a win here, with the 3-point shooting of DeVries, Vicente, Sandfort and company providing the perfect compliment to Dylan Jones’ dominant play in the paint.