Postseason Preview: Class 4A, Substate 7
Picking the first round games Southeast Polk at Indianola: This is an interesting game, as Southeast Polk has been really competitive this season, despite their 6-14 record. The Rams have lost eight games by single digits, and have a…
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Picking the first round games
Southeast Polk at Indianola: This is an interesting game, as Southeast Polk has been really competitive this season, despite their 6-14 record. The Rams have lost eight games by single digits, and have a win over Ames on their resume. They’ve only been outscored, on average, 55-51.6 this season, so they’ve been in a majority of their games. They’ll have their hands full with an Indianola team that features one of the best scorers in the state in Evan Gauger (27.1, 57.8 FG%). Gauger, a preferred walk-on at UNI, has been dominant this season with his ability to score at all three levels. Quinn Vesey (16.2) gives them another big-time scorer, and Tyce Johnson (9.6, 42 3PM) and AJ Toigo (6.9, 51.0 3P%) provide some additional shooting for the Indians. Indianola plays a 3A schedule in the Little Hawkeye Conference, but went 3-0 against 4A teams this year, with wins over Fort Dodge, Lewis Central and Urbandale. Southeast Polk is led by the Glenn brothers, Sam (15.7, 49 3PM, 43.4%) and James (9.8, 48 3PM, 44.0%), a pair of Grand View Christian transfers who have been lights out from the arc this year. SEP doesn’t want to get into a track meet with the Indians, especially playing in Indianola, so look for the Rams to try and grind this out down a bit and make Gauger and company work on the offensive end. But at the end of the day, Evan Gauger makes too much big plays and carries Indianola to a win here.
Our pick: Indianola 68, Southeast Polk 60
Des Moines Roosevelt at Ankeny: In a game that was played just three weeks ago, Ankeny cruised over Roosevelt, 88-63. Not enough has changed over the last three weeks to really think that this one is going to be much different. The Hawks are led by a trio of talented, playmaking guards in Braxton Bayless (14.6), Jaxon Smith (13.1) and Dillon Carlson (12.6). Bayless and Smith do more of their damage by getting into the paint and either finishing or distributing, while Carlson pairs with Jordan Kumm (7.8, 41.4 3P%) and Jeron Crews (6.8, 20 3PM) to give them some perimeter shooting. Ankeny is small, with their tallest regular player being Carlson at 6-3, but they outrebounded Roosevelt in that first meeting, 32-30. The Roughriders have five players who average in double figures (although those numbers are a bit skewed because some players didn’t play every game), led by Liberty transfer Iziah Paulsen (13.5), who has been a quality scorer for them since becoming eligible. Ty Walker (12.0, 46 3PM) is the most potent perimeter shooter, and he’ll need to have a big game if Roosevelt is going to be more competitive this time around.
Our pick: Ankeny 72, Des Moines Roosevelt 58
Previewing the semifinals
Indianola at West Des Moines Valley: Death, taxes and Valley grinding out postseason basketball wins. The Tigers are the top seed in the substate, and for good reason, having gone 4-0 against other teams in the substate following an odd season opening loss to Roosevelt. Coach Windhorst has them playing at a high level again this season, entering postseason play with a 18-4 record, with two of those losses coming by a point each to Waukee, a team who has spent a majority of the year ranked inside the top 3 in 4A. Valley is again deep and balanced, with nine players averaging at least 2.6 points a game, led by the guard tandem of Trayvon Williams (12.5) and Evan Obia (11.2). Jake Auer (9.0) has returned from an early season injury to give them another good perimeter scorer, and this is a group that is shooting 38% from the arc as a team. Aguek Deng (9.1) and Will Berg (7.0), both 6-8 forwards, give them plenty of size and rim protection as well. Williams is a really good perimeter defender, and he’ll likely get the task of trying to slow down Evan Gauger. While he’s not going to completely shut him out, he should make life difficult enough to slow down Indianola’s attack as a whole, and it’s really tough to bet against Windhorst and this team that grinds teams down every postseason.
Our pick: West Des Moines Valley 56, Indianola 48
Ankeny at West Des Moines Dowling: Dowling Catholic closed out the regular season strong, winning six of their last eight games, with the two losses coming by a combined seven points to Ames (five) and Des Moines Lincoln (two). The Maroons swept the season series against the Hawks, winning 58-51 and 65-57, with different players leading the charge in each win. Matt Stilwell (13.0) and Ryan Riggs (12.1) are the big guns here, with the 6-8 Riggs serving as a quality rim protector, while five others average between 3.0 and 7.6 points a game. Drew Daniel (7.6, 35 3PM) gives them some shooting, while Jack Keough (5.2, 83 assists) is a quality floor general. In the two wins over Ankeny, Dowling has held the Hawks to a combined 36-104 (34.6%) shooting (they’re a 47.5% shooting team without those games included), so the Maroons know how to attack Ankeny’s guards to force them into tough shots. Expect that to happen again, with Dowling looking to make this a physical, grind-it-out style game.
Our pick: West Des Moines Dowling 55, Ankeny 49
Players to watch
2020 Braxton Bayless, Ankeny
2020 Jaxon Smith, Ankeny
2019 Dillon Carlson, Ankeny
2020 Romanique Hellems, Des Moines Roosevelt
2020 Matt Stilwill, Dowling Catholic
2021 Ryan Riggs, Dowling Catholic
2019 Sam Glenn, Southeast Polk
2019 Evan Gauger, Indianola
2019 Quinn Vesey, Indianola
2019 Trayvon Williams, West Des Moines Valley
2019 Evan Obia, West Des Moines Valley
2019 Aguek Deng, West Des Moines Valley
2020 Will Berg, West Des Moines Valley
2019 Sam Stevens, West Des Moines Valley
2020 Jake Auer, West Des Moines Valley
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
West Des Moines Valley vs. West Des Moines Dowling
These crosstown rivals only played once this season, way back on November 30, a 63-36 Valley win. While we expect this meeting to be much closer, Valley should still make their way through this substate, beat the Maroons and get back to State for the fourth straight year, and fifth time in six seasons.