Postseason Preview: Class 4A, Substate 3
Picking the first round games Western Dubuque at Waterloo West: Both of these teams have really struggled down the stretch this year, as Western Dubuque has lost eight of their last nine, and Waterloo West has dropped seven of…
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Picking the first round games
Western Dubuque at Waterloo West: Both of these teams have really struggled down the stretch this year, as Western Dubuque has lost eight of their last nine, and Waterloo West has dropped seven of their last nine. West has the athleticism edge here, with Caleb Haag (13.7), Isaiah Johnson (11.3), Daquavian Walker (10.2) and Jaden Keller (7.0) all able to create their own shot and they shouldn’t have too much difficulty doing so against Western Dubuque. The issue for West has been turnovers, as they’ve turned the ball over 219 times (against 156 assists) this year. They’ll need to prevent live-ball turnovers here if they want to win. Western Dubuque likes to spread the floor and has a lot of shooting options, led by combo forward Dylan Johnson (11.4), a big man who can stretch the floor. If the Bobcats can take care of the ball against an aggressive West defense, they should find scoring opportunities. In a game where both teams are trending downward, we’ll give the slight edge to the home team here.
Our pick: Waterloo West 66, Western Dubuque 63
City High at Waterloo East: Behind four players who scored in double figures, East won the regular season meeting between these teams back on January 4, 62-59. The Trojans are led by Tyrese Nickelson (23.4), one of the most dangerous scoring guards in 4A, a crafty scorer who hasn’t shot it too well (30.0 3P%) this year, but is capable of getting red hot and carrying this group. Trevion Labeaux (10.4) is an athletic, slashing wing who has had a great freshman season, and Ramon Harrington (9.6), Ramir Scott (9.2) and Tavious Jenkins (8.4) give East a balanced scoring unit behind Nickelson. It has been a rough year for the Little Hawks, finishing the regular season with a 5-16 record, but they’ve gotten some quality production out of some young talent late in the year in Byron Benton (7.5) and Darren Richardson (6.6), who have provided a spark and have this program potentially trending up moving forward. City struggles with turnovers at times, and that’s not ideal against East’s athleticism on that end of the floor. A big night from Nickelson carries the Trojans into the semifinals.
Our pick: Waterloo East 68, City High 58
Previewing the semifinals
Waterloo West at Cedar Falls: There are some substates where the semifinals are going to be really good games. That is probably not the case in this substate, as Cedar Falls and Linn-Mar have established themselves as top 10 teams in 4A down the stretch, and look like they’re on a collision course. West beat Cedar Falls in the first game of the year, but the Tigers feature a number of football players who were just a few weeks removed from a state championship game run, and had very few practices under the belt. We got a better view of how this game will go on February 1 when the Tigers beat West by 30, 58-28. While it may not be another 30-point blowout, Cedar Falls should win comfortably here. The Tigers are led by guard tandem Logan Wolf (15.5) and Josh Ollendieck (10.9), while four others average between 6.6 and 9.9 points a game. They’re incredibly long and versatile on the defensive end, and look like as good a bet as any team in the state to win 4A. They roll their this one and set up a rematch with Linn-Mar, who they lost to in overtime last week.
Our pick: Cedar Falls 62, Waterloo West 42
Waterloo East at Linn-Mar: Linn-Mar has been one of the hottest teams in the state, regardless of class, following the holiday break. The Lions have won 11 of their last 12 games, with the lone loss being a somewhat perplexing one to Wahlert by 16 on February 8. They’ve won a lot of close games, including a 68-63 win over East on February 1, in a game in which they shot 13-25 (52%) from the arc. This team is loaded with shooting and will live and die by the 3. Albany signee Trey Hutcheson (19.9) is the headliner, while Jaren Nelson (10.4, 46.4 3P%), who is headed to D2 Quincy, has put together a really solid senior year as well. Greg Hall (9.8, 35.9 3P%) and John Steffen (9.2, 39.3 3P%) are really good shooters, and Hayden Passmore (8.4, 63.8 FG%) is an animal inside, particularly on the offensive glass. East will struggle to contain Passmore on the glass, and he’ll clean up any misses the Lions have here, and he should also do a solid job limiting Nickelson’s effectiveness on the other end of the floor, as he’s a really solid perimeter defender. Linn-Mar sets up the rematch we want to see in the substate final.
Our pick: Linn-Mar 69, Waterloo East 58
Players to watch
2019 Logan Wolf, Cedar Falls
2020 Josh Ollendieck, Cedar Falls
2019 Jackson Frericks, Cedar Falls
2020 Caleb Haag, Waterloo West
2020 Isaiah Johnson, Waterloo West
2019 Tyrese Nickelson, Waterloo East
2019 Trey Hutcheson, Linn-Mar
2019 Greg Hall, Linn-Mar
2019 Jaren Nelson, Linn-Mar
2020 John Steffen, Linn-Mar
2019 Hayden Passmore, Linn-Mar
2019 Antonio Turner, City High
2021 Byron Benton, City High
2021 Dylan Johnson, Western Dubuque
2020 Calvin Harris, Western Dubuque
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Cedar Falls vs. Linn-Mar
This is a real coin flip game, as evidenced by the fact that their meeting a week ago went to overtime before Linn-Mar won by four. In that meeting, Cedar Falls shot well below their season average from behind the arc, and while perhaps some of that can be credited to Linn-Mar’s defense, it’s hard to see the Tigers shooting it that poorly again. This will be a one or two possession game throughout, and whichever star (Logan Wolf or Trey Hutcheson) makes more plays late will likely determine the winner. While Hutcheson is a really gifted scorer, Wolf makes plays in a bigger variety of ways, including on the defensive end, and he makes a key stop late to help defending champion Cedar Falls return to State in a great game.