Postseason Preview: Class 4A, Substate 2
Picking the first round games Mason City at Marshalltown: These teams split their regular season meetings, with each winning at home by 12. Marshalltown has struggled down the stretch, losing eight straight before closing out the regular season with…
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Picking the first round games
Mason City at Marshalltown: These teams split their regular season meetings, with each winning at home by 12. Marshalltown has struggled down the stretch, losing eight straight before closing out the regular season with a win over Urbandale. The Bobcats are led by Jacob Smith (15.1), a solid perimeter shooter who has knocked down over 40% of his 3s, while Armonniey Thomas (9.6), Sunday Arou (8.9) and Austin Shomo (3.7) give them some more shooting. Thomas has been a really solid defender as just a freshman, and will be looking to make life difficult for Mason City lead guard Dylan Miller (11.8). Jeffrey Skogen (11.6) and Jarvorius Toney (15.3) are the other top scoring threats, while freshman shooter Corey Miner (9.3, 25 3PM) has had a really solid season. These teams are pretty evenly matched, and despite the late season struggles, we’ll give the edge to Marshalltown, playing at home.
Our pick: Marshalltown 68, Mason City 62
Urbandale at Des Moines Lincoln: Lincoln has played solid basketball at times throughout the year, rolling off a five game winning streak in mid-January, and playing quality teams like Johnston, Ankeny and Hoover tough throughout the season. The Railsplitters are led by 5-10 senior guard Josiah Cronkite (17.1), a quick lead guard who makes Lincoln go. Ben Knoebel (11.2, 61 3PM) is a quality shooter alongside Cronkite, and the Railsplitters beat Urbandale earlier this season, 49-47. Urbandale has a balanced group of scoring threats, with seven players averaging between 5.5 and 9.5 points a game, but no go-to scorer. The J-Hawks have lost 10 of 12 down the stretch, and playing at Lincoln should give the Railsplitters the edge here.
Our pick: Des Moines Lincoln 52, Urbandale 47
Previewing the semifinals
Marshalltown at Des Moines North: North has the most high powered offense in 4A, averaging 81.8 points a game, and they’ve gone over 85 points nine different times this season. The Polar Bears are led by future South Alabama point guard Tyreke Locure (30.7), a dynamic scoring guard who does a great job creating offense with his defense. Three other players average in double figures for the Polar Bears, Gatdoar Bijiek (18.4, 77 3PM, 42.1 3P%), Malik Allen (12.0) and Lino Malual (11.3). The issue for North always has been on the defensive end, as they rank 45th (out of 48) in 4A, allowing 66.7 points a game. That won’t be an issue in this game, but it could be a major factor in the substate final matchup with Ames.
Our pick: Des Moines North 90, Marshalltown 70
Des Moines Lincoln at Ames: Following an odd loss to Des Moines Hoover, Ames has ripped off seven straight wins to close out the regular season, winning by an average of 62-44. The Little Cyclones have the second best defense in 4A, allowing just 43.8 points a game, and have already beaten Lincoln by 20 earlier this year. The duo of freshman guard Tamin Lipsey (17.1) and senior wing Japannah Kellogg (16.2) paces the offense, but this group is going to win and lose games on the defensive end of the floor. In losses, the scoring against average goes up to 52 points a game, so if the Little Cyclones can lock in, they should win convincingly over Lincoln here, setting up the meeting with high-powered North.
Our pick: Ames 62, Des Moines Lincoln 45
Players to watch
2022 Tamin Lipsey, Ames
2019 Japannah Kellogg, Ames
2019 Tyreke Locure, Des Moines North
2019 Gatdoar Bijiek, Des Moines North
2019 Lino Malual, Des Moines North
2021 Malik Allen, Des Moines North
2019 Josiah Conkrite, Des Moines Lincoln
2019 Jacob Smith, Marshalltown
2019 Jarvorius Toney, Mason City
2019 Dylan Miller, Mason City
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Des Moines North vs. Ames
You won’t find two more opposite teams than this, with North’s top ranked offense taking on Ames’ second ranked defense. The question here is who will dictate tempo, and who will have an easier time taking advantage of what the other team doesn’t do well. In a postseason setting, the slower tempo team generally has the edge in dictating tempo, which gives Ames the edge here. But this one should be highly entertaining.