Postseason Preview: Class 3A, Substate 5
Xavier Foster The favorite: The most talented, and the top seeded team in this substate, is Oskaloosa, but the Indians come with a major question mark attached to them, and that is the health of star senior forward Cole…
Access all of Prep Hoops
Continue reading this article and more.
Continue ReadingXavier Foster
The favorite: The most talented, and the top seeded team in this substate, is Oskaloosa, but the Indians come with a major question mark attached to them, and that is the health of star senior forward Cole Henry (20.7). He broke his hand a few weeks ago, and while rumor has it he is going to try to give it a go during the postseason, how effective he will be remains to be seen. The Indians still have the best player in the substate in Xavier Foster (14.6), the shotblocking extraordinaire. He has blocked 113 shots on the season, including a game against Pella in which he blocked 16. The Indians can put a lot of shooting around Foster with Rian Yates (12.3, 39.3 3P%), Austin Hafner (6.8, 42.7 3P%) and Noah VanVeldhuizen (4.6, 35.7 3P%). The rim protection that Foster provides is a major boost here, as their top threat in the group, Fairfield, is fairly reliant on their ability to score in the paint, which won’t be easy against Oskaloosa. If Henry isn’t healthy, this certainly becomes a much more difficult path for the Indians, but they just beat Norwalk by 21 without him, so they’re capable of winning this substate without him. One major key to watch with this group is the free throw line, as Henry and Foster are a combined 59-136 from the stripe (43.4%). (NOTE: After publishing, Cole Henry returned to the lineup against Grinnell and posted a 20-8-4 stat line. He’s back, and he’s good to go, which makes Oskaloosa a significant favorite in this substate.)
The biggest threat: Fairfield played Oskaloosa really tough in their opener, losing 42-40, and the Trojans have compiled a 15-3 record, with their only losses coming to Oskaloosa, a Pella team that has been ranked among the top 5 most of the year in 3A, and 4A Cedar Rapids Washington. The Trojans have a balanced group, with four players averaging between 9.5 and 12.5 points, led by Austin Simpson, a 6-4 forward who does a majority of his scoring around the rim. Tristin Waugh (11.6) is also an interior scorer, while Collin Breen (11.0) and Carson Crile (9.5) are the perimeter options. The Trojans have already pounded first round opponent Centerville, 68-29, and swept likely semifinal opponent Mount Pleasant, 58-34 and 47-38, so they have to be considered the favorite to meet up with Oskaloosa in the substate final. While going at Xavier Foster will be tough, the Trojans have the weapons to potentially get him into foul trouble and make that final very interesting, especially if Cole Henry isn’t playing.
The dark horse(s): The only other real potential threats in this substate are Mount Pleasant and Keokuk. The teams split their regular season meetings, with each winning the road game in the series. The Panthers have a solid scoring wing in Sam Beatty (15.3), who could take over a given game and lead them to a few upset wins. And the Chiefs have a trio of double figure scorers, including 6-10 big man Alex Wolter (11.7), who could have a field day if he’s able to get opposing bigs into foul trouble. It’s a long shot for either of them to come out of this substate, as it looks like Oskaloosa and Fairfield are head and shoulders above the rest of this group, but if someone else is coming out of here, it’s one of these two teams.
Players to watch
2019 Cole Henry, Oskaloosa*
2020 Xavier Foster, Oskaloosa
2019 Rian Yates, Oskaloosa
2019 Austin Simpson, Fairfield
2019 Tristin Waugh, Fairfield
2020 Matt McDonald, Centerville
2020 Jayden Fedler, Fort Madison
2019 Logan Rashid, Fort Madison
2019 Alex Wolter, Keokuk
2019 Sam Beatty, Mount Pleasant
2019 Cade Hennigan, Washington
2019 Keith Keahna, South Tama
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Oskaloosa vs. Fairfield
Fairfield has shown that they’re capable of playing Oskaloosa really tough, and that was when the Indians were fully healthy. In what should be a tight game, the free throw line could play a major factor, but it’s still tough to pick against an Oskaloosa team that is going to put the best player and biggest difference maker on the floor, whether or not Cole Henry is healthy. It isn’t pretty, but Oskaloosa returns to State.