Postseason Preview: Class 3A, Substate 4
The favorite: Maquoketa got off to a 14-0 start to the year, and a #1 ranking in the state, before dropping a pair of six-point decisions to Marion and Dyersville Beckman in recent weeks. The Cardinals have been strong…
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The favorite: Maquoketa got off to a 14-0 start to the year, and a #1 ranking in the state, before dropping a pair of six-point decisions to Marion and Dyersville Beckman in recent weeks. The Cardinals have been strong on both ends of the floor, ranking 12th in 3A in scoring offense at 64.7 points a game and 8th in defense at 50.5. They’ve already beaten the other three teams on their side of the bracket by an average of 21 points a game, so they have to be considered the heavy favorite to come out of the top of the bracket. They’re led by Abe Becker (19.6, 73 3PM), who recently tied a state record by making 13 3s in a single game. He’s as deadly a shooter as there is in the state, but he’s not alone, as Macklin Shanahan (11.5) and Kane Kopp (10.1) also average in double figures, while Connor Becker (9.0) is a solid option as well. Shanahan is a do-it-all wing who leads the team in rebounding, assists, steals and blocks and is capable of dominating games. Kopp and Becker provide more shooting alongside Abe Becker. This group has proven they can win in a variety of ways this season, equally comfortable getting up-and-down or playing a grind-it-out game, and with Becker leading the charge, they’ve got a great chance at State.
The biggest threat: Like Xavier, Assumption and Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Dubuque Wahlert has the advantage of playing in a 4A conference, which prepares them well for postseason play at the 3A level. The Golden Eagles are led by a pair of dynamic junior guards in Jacob Schockemoehl (17.1) and Cael Schmitt (13.2). Schmitt has dished out 78 assists to just 31 turnovers and also leads the team in steals, and that duo has combined with Isaac Ripley (10.2) to make 101 3s on the season. This group isn’t very efficient (40.7 FG%), but some of that can be attributed to the incredibly tough schedule they play (ranked the most difficult in 3A by BC Moore’s power rating system). They’ve proven capable of beating quality teams, with wins over Assumption and Linn-Mar, but they’ve also been a fairly inconsistent group, with a few major blowout losses on their resume. Wahlert is incredibly dangerous, and they aren’t going to be intimidated by anyone, but a bad shooting night can really derail them, as unlike a team like Maquoketa, which can lock you down defensively, the Eagles are pretty reliant on outscoring teams.
Two more contenders: Marion will have their hands full with Wahlert in the semifinal, but if they’re able to get through the Golden Eagles, they should get a third meeting with Maquoketa, and the Indians have already beaten the Cardinals once this season, a 53-47 win on January 25, Maquoketa’s first loss of the year. Will Henricksen (17.3), a Linn-Mar transfer, has been great on the offensive end for the Indians, a gifted scorer who can score from all three levels. Trevor Paulsen (10.0) is an efficient scorer around the rim, and Jaffer Murphy (9.2) gives them an athletic slashing guard who can also serve as a high-level defender. Coach Mike Manderscheid led this group on an improbable run to State last year, and he has the talent and defensive team to do so again. The other major contender in this substate is Central DeWitt. The Sabers have dropped both meetings with rival Maquoketa this year, 81-64 and 77-62, but it’s tough to beat a team three times in one year, and you can bet that DeWitt is looking forward to getting a third shot at the Cardinals. Tucker Kinney (14.6) leads a trio of double figure scorers, with Alex McAleer (13.2) and Logan Paulsen (12.8) joining him. If they’re able to somehow grab a late lead, Paulsen (92.1 FT%) is a major weapon late in games.
The dark horse: Mount Vernon has just a 6-11 record (as of 2/12), but the Mustangs have lost six of those games by single digits, and have one of the most dangerous offensive players in the substate on their team in sophomore guard Keaton Kutcher (19.1, 41.1 3P%). He’s capable of getting red hot and carrying this team to some wins, and Blake Booth (7.1, 47.5 3P%) gives them another dead-eye shooter. If they’re making shots, the ‘Stangs are capable of rattling off three straight wins.
Players to watch
2020 Jacob Schockemoehl, Dubuque Wahlert
2020 Cael Schmitt, Dubuque Wahlert
2019 Abe Becker, Maquoketa
2019 Macklin Shanahan, Maquoketa
2019 Matthew Walton, Anamosa
2022 Sam Wilt, Anamosa
2020 Will Henricksen, Marion
2020 Logan Paulsen, Central DeWitt
2020 Alex McAleer, Central DeWitt
2020 Tucker Kinney, Central DeWitt
2020 AJ Coons, Solon
2021 Keaton Kutcher, Mount Vernon
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Maquoketa vs. Dubuque Wahlert
If this matchup materializes, it may be the best substate final in 3A. The guard matchups of Abe Becker, Kane Kopp and Macklin Shanahan taking on Jacob Schockemoehl, Cael Schmitt and Isaac Ripley would be highly entertaining, and whichever star (Becker/Schockemoehl) has the better, more efficient game, should take home the win here. Maquoketa has the X-factor in this matchup, as Shanahan’s length could bother Schockemoehl, and help Maquoketa grab the win and punch their Des Moines ticket, the first since 1987.