Postseason Preview: Class 1A, Substate 7
Caleb Grizzle The favorite: Behind 1A’s top ranked offense (81.6 points a game) and defense (37.4), Ankeny Christian Academy has rolled to a 19-0 record and a top-5 ranking in the class. There are legitimate concerns about the schedule…
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The favorite: Behind 1A’s top ranked offense (81.6 points a game) and defense (37.4), Ankeny Christian Academy has rolled to a 19-0 record and a top-5 ranking in the class. There are legitimate concerns about the schedule that the Eagles have played, which ranks 128th (out of 147 1A teams), according to BC Moore’s power rating system. Caleb Grizzle (16.6) leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and has also blocked 68 shots. He’s a long, athletic forward capable of scoring from all three levels, and should have his way with most teams in the district. Jayce Goergen (15.1) has been impressive, posting 99 assists to just 20 turnovers, and David Nelson (11.4), Chad Elrod (9.4), Daniel Lounsbrough (8.6) and Nic Worsham (6.6) give them more scoring punch. This group has already beaten Martensdale-St. Mary’s, 65-49.
The biggest threat: Earlham has won 11 of 13 games since the holiday break, with the lone losses coming to 2A teams Des Moines Christian and Panorama. The Cardinals have the best player in the district in Trent Williamson (19.6), who has finally recovered from his injury and returned to playing at a high level. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and is capable of dominating games on either end of the floor. TJ Harkins (12.4) is a dangerous shooter, and Parker Kleigl (6.6) has blocked 67 shots this season. His ability to protect the rim will come in handy against Grizzle, Goergen and company. The Cardinals have the added benefit of playing the district semifinal at home, despite being a lower seeded team that Martensdale-St. Mary’s. They’ve played a significantly more difficult schedule than any other team in the district, which will come in handy.
The dark horse: Martensdale-St. Mary’s is the district’s second seeded team, but will have to travel to Earlham should they meet in the semifinal. The Blue Devils have been a very pleasant surprise this year, with their top five scorers underclassmen. Trey Baker (16.8) is a high-level scoring wing who can get the job done at all three levels, while Carson Elbert (13.4) and Jack Franey (10.3) provide some additional scoring punch on the perimeter. Issac Gavin (12.2) can protect the rim and score inside. The Devils lost to ACA, 65-49, earlier this year, so they’ll have their hands full in a possible district final.
Players to watch
2019 Caleb Grizzle, Ankeny Christian Academy
2019 Jayce Goergen, Ankeny Christian Academy
2019 Trent Williamson, Earlham
2021 TJ Harkins, Earlham
2021 Trey Baker, Martensdale-St. Mary’s
2021 Carson Elbert, Martensdale-St. Mary’s
2019 Ben Obert, Coon Rapids-Bayard
2020 Clay Hohertz, Nodaway Valley
2020 Christian McCuen, Southwest Valley
2019 Noah Nichols, Orient-Macksburg
The favorite: Despite a below .500 record, St. Albert is the favorite here. The Falcons have played a remarkably tough schedule, as they play in the Hawkeye 10, a 2A/3A dominant league. 6-5 senior Jared Gast (13.6) leads the way, a veteran who played in last year’s state tournament. Sam Rallis (10.6) gives CBSA some more size in the paint, while Reed Miller (7.2, 25 3PM) and Lance Wright (6.9, 21 3PM) provide some perimeter shooting. The Falcons play tough defense, have a veteran coach who has been in this spot before, and has played a much more difficult schedule than any other team in this district (3rd SOS in 1A, according to BC Moore’s power rating system; Stanton is 144, East Mills 135).
The biggest threat: One of five remaining undefeated teams in 1A, Stanton was dealt a major blow late in the season, losing second leading scorer Drake Johnson, who was averaging just under 22 points a game. They also lost role players Easton Hultman and Keygan Day, who combined to average just under 12 points a game, so that’s 34 points a game, and three of their top six rotation players, gone. There is still some talent on the floor in Donnie Weis (22.4) and Tyler Peterson (13.3), while freshman Carter Johnson scored 18 points in their late season win over Lenox. If he can produce at that level, the Vikings could still be in business.
The dark horse: East Mills has won 10 of their 12 games following the holiday break, with both losses coming to Stanton, and with Drake Johnson and company in the lineup for the Vikings. The Wolverines have used one of the best defenses in 1A to make up for an offense that isn’t very efficient (41-21-56 shooting splits). They’re allowing just 42.3 points a game, good for 5th in the class. Pedro Rogozzo (18.4), Riley Story (13.1) and Michael Schafer (10.3) provide the scoring punch, but if this group is going to make noise, it’ll be because of their work on the defensive end of the floor.
Players to watch
2019 Jared Gast, St. Albert
2021 Sam Rallis, St. Albert
2019 Donnie Weis, Stanton
2020 Tyler Peterson, Stanton
2019 Pedro Rogozzo, East Mills
2019 Riley Story, East Mills
2020 Noah Jorgenson, Sidney
2019 Brady Lorimor, Sidney
2019 Mason Vanatta, Fremont-Mills
2019 Brenden Dingus, Heartland Christian
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Ankeny Christian Academy vs. Council Bluffs, St. Albert
This is a remarkably interesting game, as St. Albert has played one of the most difficult schedules in 1A, while ACA has played a weak schedule but rolled through it with dominant offensive and defensive performances. Ankeny Christian Academy punches their ticket to State behind a big game from Caleb Grizzle, in a narrow win over a feisty St. Albert bunch.