Postseason Preview: Class 1A, Substate 1
The favorite: Already holding a win over Gehlen Catholic, and off the heels of back-to-back trips to State, Remsen, St. Mary’s is the slight favorite to emerge from this district. (St. Mary’s and Gehlen Catholic play again…
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The favorite: Already holding a win over Gehlen Catholic, and off the heels of back-to-back trips to State, Remsen, St. Mary’s is the slight favorite to emerge from this district. (St. Mary’s and Gehlen Catholic play again on Tuesday.) The Hawks have an almost entirely new cast of characters this season, but have played their typical strong defense, allowing just 45.4 points a game, good for 15th in 1A. Spencer Schorg (15.8 points a game) leads the charge, one of the few players on the roster with real postseason experience, and they’ll need him to elevate his game to another level to come out of this tricky group.
The biggest threat: The aforementioned LeMars, Gehlen Catholic played St. Mary’s to a two-point game, on the road, in early January and they’ll have their chance to avenge that loss on both Tuesday night and in the postseason. The Jays have three double figure scorers in Jacob Nemmers (15.3), Caden Kneip (14.3) and Zach Kraft (13.4), but they’ll need to find a way to score against St. Mary’s incredibly tough defense if they want to emerge from this district. In their first meeting, the Jays shot just 18-56 (32%) from the field. That won’t get them through.
The dark horse(s): Three potential spoilers lurk in this district, making it a difficult one for either St. Mary’s or Gehlen Catholic to navigate. Lawton-Bronson has three players averaging in double figures, headlined by Ben Thelander, a 6-6 big averaging 15.8 points and 10.6 rebounds. He’s the type of player who could give either of the top two teams issues. The Eagles are also the strongest defensive team of the other contenders, allowing just 49.7 points a game. Kingsley-Pierson has the single most dangerous player of any of the three teams in Nathan Keck, a versatile scoring wing who averages 20.7 points and leads the team in almost every major category. He may be the single best player in the district, and could carry the Panthers to enough wins to grab a district title. The final potential spoiler is Akron-Westfield, who has already proven they can beat one of the top teams, notching a 66-57 win over St. Mary’s earlier this season. The Westerners have a trio of potent shooting threats in Nick Jacobs (41 3PM), Reagan Frankl (23) and Leighten Blake (28). If that trio is able to get hot from deep, they can make a run, and they’ve already proven they can beat one of the favorites in the district.
Players to watch
2020 Spencer Schorg, Remsen St. Mary’s
2020 Skyler Waldschmitt, Remsen St. Mary’s
2020 Jacob Nemmers, Gehlen Catholic
2019 Caden Kneip, Gehlen Catholic
2019 Nick Jacobs, Akron-Westfield
2020 Ben Thelander, Lawton-Bronson
2019 Nathan Keck, Kingsley-Pierson
2020 Jonah Deroos, Siouxland Christian
2020 Christian Heilbuth, Siouxland Christian
2020 Mitchell Countryman, Woodbury Central
The favorite: The state didn’t do them many favors with this draw, but George-Little Rock is the best team in this district, and should be considered the favorite. The Mustangs have only dropped two games this season, both against Boyden-Hull, who is undefeated in Class 2A. With six players averaging between 7.3 and 12.9 points a game, the ‘Stangs are a difficult team to prepare for, as anyone can hurt you on a given night. They’ve been strong on the defensive end, allowing just 46.1 points a game (and that number drops to 43.3 if you take out the two Boyden-Hull games). This is a veteran group, with Payton Mauldin (12.9), Blake Johnson (7.3), Lucas Nagel (11.5), Caleb Terhark (10.2), Landon Jumbeck (9.9) and Matt Haken (8.4) all members of last year’s state qualifying team. This year’s group has their sights set on a meeting with Grand View Christian on Championship Friday, and they’re certainly strong enough to make it happen.
The biggest threat: If you put any stock into Brent Moore’s power ranking system (bcmoorerankings.com), you’ll see why George-Little Rock (ranked 2nd in 1A there) got such a tough draw. And that’s because 4th ranked South O’Brien resides on the other side of the bracket. Always a strong defensive team, this year’s version of the Wolverines is no exception, ranking fifth in 1A in scoring defense, allowing just 41.5 points a game. Of their four losses, two have come to undefeated 2A teams (West Sioux, Boyden-Hull), and another came in overtime to St. Mary’s. This group is a little easier to prepare for, as it’s Jackson Louscher (20.4) who does a majority of the scoring. Zeke Lundquist (10.9) is the only other player averaging more than 5.5 points a night. Louscher is a do-everything wing who ranks second in 1A in free throws made and attempted, so G-LR will have their hands full trying to contain him. If South O’Brien is able to slow the game against G-LR down, they are certainly more than capable of coming out of this district and making some noise at State.
The dark horse: Despite their 4-13 record (as of 1/31), Central Lyon should not be taken lightly. The Lions have played the most difficult schedule in 1A (again, according to BC Moore’s rankings system), and won’t be scared by anyone. Zed Heimensen (15.9) leads the way, a versatile wing who does a bit of everything, and they’ve recently added a real sharpshooter to the fold in the form of freshman guard Mason Gerleman (10.0), who is shooting 59.4% from the arc (19-32) in his six varsity games. If he’s able to get hot, he could shoot Central Lyon to a few wins here.
Players to watch
2020 Payton Mauldin, George-Little Rock
2019 Lucas Nagel, George-Little Rock
2020 Matt Haken, George-Little Rock
2019 Landon Jumbeck, George-Little Rock
2019 Jackson Louscher, South O’Brien
2019 Zed Heimensen, Central Lyon
2022 Mason Gerleman, Central Lyon
2019 Shane Kooima, Trinity Christian
2019 Tyson Kruse, Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire
2020 Isaac Ihnen, Harris-Lake Park
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Remsen, St. Mary’s vs. George-Little Rock
St. Mary’s has had another strong season, but the balance and toughness of George-Little Rock should be too much for them to overcome here. The Mustangs are a veteran team that is looking to get back to Des Moines, where they should make some real noise this time around.