Contender/Pretender: Regions 5-8
The state of Kentucky is 2 weeks away from the start of postseason play so I thought it was time to start separating the contenders for regional crowns from the pretenders. Let’s break it down: Fifth Region: Contenders: John Hardin…
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Continue ReadingThe state of Kentucky is 2 weeks away from the start of postseason play so I thought it was time to start separating the contenders for regional crowns from the pretenders. Let’s break it down:
Fifth Region:
- Contenders:
- John Hardin – The lone undefeated team left in Kentucky. They beat LaRue County by one back on January 11th. They have a lot of balance and depth and win close games as 12 of their 27 games have been won by single digits.
- LaRue County – They’re huge and pretty athletic with Anthony Adkins, Dailliss Cox and Mark Goode all capable of going for a double-double each night out. But they have lost two close games to John Hardin and Central Hardin.
- Central Hardin – They’ve been tested by a good schedule but a 15 point loss to a mediocre Eastern team this week is a concern. Jacob Hobbs will be called on to negate the size disadvantage against either John Hardin or LaRue.
- Pretenders:
- Taylor County – If you look at their schedule, it’s easy to see how they got to 17 wins this year but they have lost to every good team they’ve played. If they can beat LaRue on Friday night, that changes things.
- Marion County – Strong record at 18-6 but don’t have the size or firepower to knock off any of the big 3 in the region. And they would have to beat 2 of the 3 to get to Rupp Arena.
Sixth Region:
- Contenders:
- Butler – 6 of their 7 losses have come by single digits but they have also won their fair share of close games. These Bears play hard and don’t have any back down in them but their overall talent level isn’t as high as some of the more recent Butler teams.
- Pleasure Ridge Park – The mid-season transfer of James Taylor Jr. has helped their offensive execution but his shooting numbers are very low and you can lay off of him until he starts to make some shots. Darius Osborne has quietly had a really good Senior season.
- Jeffersontown – They’re a perfect 10-0 against 6th region foes. They’re 5-10 against everyone else. So you’d think that bodes well for their chances of getting to Rupp. A Valentine’s Day match-up with Butler should say a lot about their chances.
- Pretenders:
- Fern Creek – Supremely talented but incredibly young. These Tigers are probably a year away from being the favorites in the 6th region. Jaden Rogers may be the best point guard in the city as a Sophomore but will need to shoot better than 30% from 3 for his team to have a chance.
- Bullitt Central – 17-9 is a great record but they haven’t beaten anyone they shouldn’t have. And they won’t have more talent than any of the top 3 contenders mentioned above.
- Seventh Region:
- Contenders:
- Trinity – David Johnson is back and is the best player in the city. They know how to lock teams down on defense and can grind out wins in the half court. Last week’s loss to Male is a head scratcher but Trinity should be considered the favorites to get to the Sweet Sixteen.
- Ballard – Winners of 10 of their last 11 after limping out of the gate, Ballard is starting to look like Ballard again. With several long athletes, they should be able to defend and rebound. Playing 6 games in 11 days before the district is a bit odd but they tend to roll through their district tournament.
- Waggener – Having a great season at 22-3 but they’ll have to avoid a second straight loss to Seneca in the district opener. There’s a good chance they’ll need to beat both Trinity and Ballard and/or Male to get to Rupp. That’s a tough 3 game stretch if it happens.
- Male – The Bulldogs are a little ahead of schedule under Coach Haworth. You can pencil them in as heavy favorites next year in the 7th but they’re trying to move that up a year. Juniors Howard Fleming, Noah Courtney and Tyren Moore are a formidable trio for the Dogs.
- Pretenders:
- Seneca – They’ve lost to all the teams listed above but did previously knock off Ballard. They’re the type of team that could be in the regional title game or lose to Waggener in the first round of the district.
- Central – These Jackets are having a great season at 15-4 but we’ll see if they’re for real when they finish the season with back to back games against Trinity and Ballard.
Eighth Region:
- Contenders:
- Walton-Verona – Senior post players Dieonte Miles and Ethan Brook are a match-up nightmare for opponents but their guards are a weakness compared to everyone else on this list.
- Gallatin County – They’ve lost close games to Collins, Oldham County and Walton-Verona but they play a tough, physical style of play and will beat teams up over the course of 32 minutes. Senior Troy Coomer is not afraid of the big shot and could have a chance to shoot his way into Rupp Arena.
- South Oldham – The Dragons play 5 out on offense and shoot a ton of 3s. They have the green light to let it fly from deep and can beat anyone when they’re hot. They’ve also lost to Simon Kenton, Oldham County, Gallatin County and a couple other head scratchers including Spencer County.
- Collins – Losers of 4 out of their last 6, teams seemed to realize that if you can limit Dayvion McKnight and Marcellus Vail, you can beat the Titans. The difference between the team that nearly won the King of the Bluegrass and the most recent Collins games is the role players. Players 4-9 on the team make the difference in Rupp Arena or an early exit from the regional.
- Simon Kenton – Another team that lives and dies by the 3 point shot, SK is riding a 3 game losing streak including losses to Gallatin and Oldham County. Before that, the Pioneers won 7 out of 8. They could win the region or lose the opener.
- Oldham County – They’re only 16-10 but they are well coached and have some nice players. They have good wins over South Oldham and Gallatin County but weird losses to Grant County and Highlands. They’re capable of getting back to Rupp after making it there last season.
- Pretenders:
- Everyone Else – The 8th Region champion will be one of the 6 teams listed above