4A Elite 8: Preview & Predictions
The last eight teams in the 4A Division have officially separated themselves from the pack. The first official round of the playoffs is behind us and saw a couple upsets, as 11th ranked Catalina Foothills wiggled past #6 Seton Catholic and the 12th ranked Mesquite got past #5 Peoria in an overtime battle. Here is a look into the Elite 8 for 4A, as well as some predictions for you to ponder.
Shadow Mountain is no stranger to being the top-seeded team during this time of the season. The Matadors have built themselves a dynasty to remember under former player and current Head Coach Mike Bibby. This is also the fourth year straight that one of the most talented backcourt duos to ever grace and Arizona hardwood in GCU signee Jovan Blacksher Jr. And ASU signee Jaelen House will be gearing up to make a deep playoff run. After a second half blowout over Moon Valley at home in the first round, they will take on Amphitheater, led by possibly the best on-ball defender in the state in 6-foot-4 senior guard/wing Jackson Ruai. Amphi got here by defeating Estrella Foothills at home in hard fought game. They will need to play their best game of the year and possibly carry a rabbit’s foot in their socks for this game.
I will say this, Shadow Mountain does seem to be coming in a bit hobbled. Don’t jump at that statement though, they are still a very heavily favorite to win the title once again this season. But you do have to factor in a few things that I saw in the last game. Blacksher is just returning from an injured wrist. House has not been exactly on as of late from the outside. They are missing a little something on the wings that they had in spades in years past. Then if you factor in that the teams they will play moving forward will attempt to get up and down, it almost eliminates their 6-foot-9 senior big man Malik Lamin from the game, as he struggles to match the frantic pace that Shadow Mountain plays with at times. However, 6-foot-4 junior wing Shemar Morrow has been excellent on the boards and 6-foot-4 senior wing Jalen Williams (Nevada football commit) has been a huge factor for them on the defensive end of the floor. He will undoubtedly draw the match-up with Ruai and if he is able to have his usual impact, they should be getting ready for their next trip to Grand Canyon for the 4A semi-finals.
Prediction: Shadow Mountain by 15-20
If the overwhelming favorite (Shadow) wins that game as expected, they will square up with the winner of the 4th ranked team, Salpointe Catholic, and the 12th ranked squad, Mesquite. Mesquite is the cinderella story of this conference thus far. It is a team void of any Division-I prospects and just finds a way to win games. Their overtime upset over a very talented Peoria team on the road was impressive. This round, they will travel to Tucson to play on of the very few teams that can say they have two legitimated mid-to-low major talents on their roster. While Pepperdine commit, Majok Deng, is their do-everything guy that holds a big defensive burden for his team and is responsible for controlling the glass and still trying to bring his A-game on the offensive end, it is 6-foot-2 junior guard Evan Nelson that takes this team to the level of being a championship contender. He averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals per game this season.
However, here is the argument that has to be heard when it comes to Salpointe. They played one of the weaker schedules amongst the upper echelon of this division and probably won’t go into the later rounds of the playoffs being mistaken for “battle tested.” However, I do not believe this is the round that we have to worry about that just yet. Mesquite has a way of making things happen, but I just do not see an answer for the dynamic duo that Salpointe possesses.
Prediction: Salpointe by 15-20
The 3rd ranked Buckeye Hawks might have played the toughest schedule in the state, regardless of class, outside of Shadow Mountain and possibly Pinnacle. It wasn’t their region play and they only had a couple of tough opponents in-state, but their out-of-state schedule was the real deal. Head Coach Randy Bland has them beaming with confidence and has a roster that is absolutely loaded with some talent that will play college basketball at some level or another. They are led by their own dynamic duo of 6-foot-5 senior super-athletic guard/wing Otis Frazier III and 6-foot-1 junior guard Tay Boothman. Frazier has made a case to be considered 4A Player of the Year this season. Boothman is battling an injury on his shoulder, but is attempting to soldier through it. Their other talented guard is 6-foot-5 senior guard Isaiah Marin. After sitting the 9 games regulated by the transfer rule, he has been a difference maker and a mismatch for opposing teams. He will have similar mismatch opportunities in this game.
They will square up against the 11th ranked Catalina Foothills, who up-Set Catholic, the only team to beat Buckeye in the state of Arizona this season, in the first round. Seton boggled the athletic and talented Hawks by playing extremely disciplined inside their zone defense, slowing the tempo down, and limiting Buckeye’s offensive possessions. They can expect to see a similar game out of Catalina but could struggle even more with some of Catalina’s size that can keep Buckeye’s size off the glass. If 6-foot-8 senior forward Adam Hamilton and 6-foot-7 sophomore forward Leroy Williams can hold down the boards and get Buckeye out on the run before Catalina can get set, this game could be over before the half. If not, Buckeye could be looking at some trouble.
Prediction: Buckeye by 10-15
The 2nd ranked Deer Valley Hawks have enjoyed some real success in their first season since coming down from the 5A Division. After losing in the championship game and three starters right along with it, their returning core has them in a position to get back to that same game. Their 5-foot-10 senior point guard Johnny Diaz has been a huge reason for their success this season. His leadership and production on the floor has been unmatched. 6-foot-7 senior forward Brandon Savage has showed some skill and has some people talking about what he could be at the next level if he continues to improve. His athleticism, shot blocking and rebounding ability is huge for the Skyhawks success. After blowing out Saguaro, they will take out the Knights from St. Mary’s.
The 7th ranked St. Mary’s is playing some of the hottest basketball in the state. While they are young, they are extremely well-coached and disciplined and play together like some seasoned vets. While Deer Valley is heavily favored, it will not be a walk in the park. St. Mary’s ran thru Arcadia in the first round and will be prepared for this game. Deer Valley will need some real production out of one of the Allen twins, Jarret or Jalen. If they play their game, they should advance.
Prediction: Deer Valley by 10-15