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Posted On: 10/14/17 9:11 AM
Upper Arlington’s Dane Goodwin is likely the preseason favorite to win Mr. Basketball this season. After all, he was the only junior truly considered for the Prep Hoops Ohio Player of the Year in 2016-17.
A season ago, Goodwin averaged 27 points per game on an Upper Arlington team that went 24-3 overall and won a District Championship. Goodwin’s points per game average was 3.5 points better than anyone else’s on the Division I All State First Team.
When you look at the formula, it’s pretty hard to not lean towards Goodwin as the guy this season.
First of all, Ohio’s Mr. Basketball must have elite talent. Since 2001, only LeBron James (#1 NBA Draft pick) and Justin Fritts (Wheeling Jesuit) didn’t play Division I basketball.
Next, we considered projected team success. Again since 2001, 10 of the 17 Mr. Basketball winners led their high school team to the State Final Four that season.
Then, the most important piece of the formula considered is production. We’re considering the player’s projected role on their team to predict if they have the opportunity to fill up the scorer’s book. It’s especially imperative that you put up points, as the only Mr. Basketball to average under 20 points since 2001 was Jared Sullinger at 19.9 points per game in 2009. But, Sullinger made up for that tenth of a point by averaging 14.8 rebounds, being the #2 player in the country, and winning the Division I State Championship.
Let’s see how the Notre Dame commit stacks up in each category.
Goodwin, one of six players in Ohio’s 2018 class committed to a high-major program, might be the purest scorer in Ohio. Even when there’s solid defense being played, Goodwin can create a sliver of separation for his consistent jumper. At 6’5”, Goodwin is also strong enough to crash the boards effectively. He’s a coach on the floor, making his impact always felt.
During this summer’s Nike EYBL circuit, Goodwin averaged 13 points (49-38-84 shooting splits), 4.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, per D1 Circuit.
With the return of Goodwin and junior Max Martz, this Upper Arlington team is as dangerous as anyone in Central Ohio to make it to the Schott. The Golden Bears return most of their offensive production from a season ago, where they finish ranked #6 in Ohio in the final AP State Poll. Furthermore, Goodwin and Martz have improved.
The only glaring issue for UA is their size. The two schools from Pickerington will enter the season as the class of Central Ohio, and their both longer and more physical than Upper Arlington. Come the postseason, Upper Arlington will have to find some way to neutralize those teams’ size.
Could he get up to 30 points per game this season?
His teammate, Martz, has established himself as a top ten player in Ohio’s junior class. But that’s not going to subtract many opportunities from Goodwin. That just means that they’ll have two supreme talents taking shots.
So, yes, Goodwin could definitely hover around 30 points per game this season.
As you can tell by now, Goodwin’s chances are extremely high. If Upper Arlington is a top ten team in the AP State Poll at year’s end (which we expect them to be) and Goodwin averages about 30 points, he’ll probably take home the award.