Class 3A State Tournament Preview
No. 1 seed: Waverly-Shell Rock (22-1)
About Waverly-Shell Rock: The perennial power Go-Hawks were the No. 1 team in 3A for a majority of the season until a late season loss to 4A Cedar Falls. Led by future Northern Iowa big man Austin Phyfe (19.0, 13.1 rebounds), this team goes deep and has lots of versatility. They rank fourth in 3A in scoring defense, allowing just 45.3 points a game, and they’re efficient on offense, shooting 50% as a team. John Stensland (13.2, 42.2 3P%) has knocked down 73 3-pointers on the season, and Jack Seward (48.5 3P%, 33 3PM) joins him to provide some great perimeter shooting to put around Phyfe. Their depth will be a major advantage for them, as Phyfe should get teams into foul trouble.
Why they can win it all: Armed with the best player in the field, the Go-Hawks are balanced, deep and strong defensively. A powerhouse program that is used to winning, they’ll be ready for whatever is thrown at them.
Chances they win it all: 20%. They’re the top seed for a reason, and while the 4-5 winner will prove to be a tricky opponent, they’ve got the best player in the field and as such must be considered at least a co-favorite.
No. 2 seed: West Delaware (24-0)
About West Delaware: The lone undefeated team left in 3A, the Hawks aren’t going to blow you away with anything they do, but they’ll do everything well. They’ve got the best scoring defense in the field, allowing just 43.9 points a game. They’ve got size that few teams can match with 6-6 John Nagel (14.0) and 6-7 Derek Krogmann (15.9, 11.3 rebounds), a duo that attacks the offensive glass and can cause all sorts of problems with their physicality. They’re able to flank that duo with some shooting in the form of Tyler Kelley (40.0 3P%), Kyle Wright (39.6 3P%) and Marshall McCarty (38.6 3P%), giving them some versatility on the offensive end. Ryan Trainer is as solid as they come at the point guard spot, limiting turnovers and running this team through their sets effectively. They’ll defend you to death, beat you up on the glass and hope their shooters can knock down some timely shots.
Why they can win it all: Krogmann and Nagel’s size will cause all sorts of issues for teams, and if they can get some 3s to fall, they’ll be tough to beat. They’ll beat you up, grind you down and wear you out.
Chances they win it all: 17.5%. Pella looks like a really difficult matchup for this group, with a big who can bang with them on the glass, and the pressure defense that can cause issues for the Hawks. Still, they’re unbeaten this late in the season for a reason, and they’ve got a solid chance at taking home the title.
No. 3 seed: Pella (22-2)
About Pella: The highest scoring team in 3A, averaging 75 points a game, the Dutch have ridden their usual deep rotation and defensive pressure to make their games up-tempo and forcing opposing teams to play into their depth. The tandem of Ryan Van Wyk (20.6, 6.7 rebounds) and Donovan Holterhaus (14.3, 7.8 rebounds) are as active a duo as you’ll see, and their versatility and constant movement will cause problems. Nick Finney (160 assists, 47 turnovers) is as steady as they come at the point guard spot, and they’ve got a number of other role players who are capable of stepping up in any given game.
Why they can win it all: They’ve pretty much rolled through one of the state’s toughest conferences (Little Hawkeye), and have a duo of players that are very difficult matchups. With their depth, if they’re able to dictate the tempo, they’ll be extremely tough to beat.
Chances they win it all: 17.5%. The last few years, good Pella teams have run into great Xavier teams. They won’t have to worry about the Saints until the championship this time around.
No. 4 seed: Cedar Rapids Xavier (13-11)
About Cedar Rapids Xavier: It took the defending champions a long time to get things going this season, starting off 4-9. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games heading into the tournament, and are as dangerous as any team in the field. With four players (including three starters) from last year’s rotation back, the Saints are as good a bet as any to take home another title. Matt Mims (14.9, 124 assists, 34 turnovers) leads the way, a smooth point guard who can dominate a game either scoring or facilitating. Max Techau (12.5, 9.1 rebounds) is an active big man who controls the glass. Jackson Joens (11.6, 44.0 3P%) is playing his best ball of the season in the last few games, and is a lights out shooter. And they’re finally getting production out of their role players. Nolan Butkowski (9.5) has stepped up as a good fourth option on offense, capable of getting to the rim or knocking down 3s. He’s also their best perimeter defender, and while it took him a while to get going after a long, successful football season, the Saints’ hot streak has coincided with him playing well. There is all sorts of experience here, and they’ve played the most difficult schedule in the field.
Why they can win it all: They’ve got the talent and the experience back from last year’s state champion. They’re playing their best basketball of the year down the stretch.
Chances they win it all: 15%. They’ve got a tough draw, taking on a good Mount Pleasant team that will be looking for revenge after a season opening loss to the Saints. If they get through that, it’s top seed W-SR waiting, who the Saints have already lost to. They’ll have to earn the repeat title, but with the talent and experience they have, don’t count them out.
No. 5 seed: Mount Pleasant (22-2)
About Mount Pleasant: The young Panthers have grown up this year and are blasting teams by an average of 28 points a game, which is impressive even though they’ve played what BC Moore’s power rankings say is the second weakest schedule in the 3A field. They’re led by shooting guard Brady Sartorius (22.0), one of the smoothest guards in the state with a phenomenal mid-range game. Jordan Magnani and Colin Mulford add some perimeter shooting, and the addition of foreign exchange student Tom O’Connor has added some much needed size. The big fella from Australia checks in at 6-9, and he can make a major impact on both ends of the floor. They’ve got a very tough draw, with a matchup against defending champion Xavier in the first round and a possible meeting with top seeded Waverly-Shell Rock in the semifinals looming. If they make it to Saturday night, they will most certainly have earned it.
Why they can win it all: This group has been playing together for a long time, with them all playing varsity as freshmen together and now making it to the tournament as juniors. That type of cohesiveness is a major asset, and they’ve got added versatility and size now.
Chances they win it all: 12.5%. If the Panthers were on the other side of the bracket, they would probably have a better chance, as they may match up better with Pella than they do Xavier and Waverly-Shell Rock. Still, this is a team that is accustomed to winning, plays good defense and has a playmaking guard who can win them games.
No. 6 seed: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (15-9)
About Sergeant Bluff-Luton: Six of the Warriors’ losses have come by single digits, and of those losses, four were to 4A teams (including a pair of losses to 4A qualifier Sioux City East by a combined three points), and another of the losses was to 2A qualifier Western Christian. This team has played some strong competition throughout the season, and their veteran trio of double figure scorers all bring a little something different to the table. Chris Kroll (16.8) is the leader, a versatile scoring threat who can score from anywhere. He also leads the team in steals and blocks. Jackson Wright (13.5) does his damage on the interior, shooting 54.7% from the floor and leading the team in rebounding. Conner Groves (11.2) is a sharpshooter who has knocked down 65 3s on the season. Throw in Keegan Savary (99 assists to 43 turnovers), and you’ve got a veteran group that has played together for a while and is skilled.
Why they can win it all: Like Mount Pleasant, this is a group that has been playing together and growing up with each other on the floor for a while now, and the state tournament berth is the fruits of their labor. They’ve got balance, and they’ve proven they can hang with elite competition.
Chances they win it all: 7.5%. It’s a tough draw for the Warriors, against a Pella team that is going to run and gun on them. But they’ve got the talent to make a run through the bottom half of this bracket.
No. 7 seed: Dallas Center-Grimes (15-9)
About Dallas Center-Grimes: The Mustangs entered postseason play limping, having lost five in a row. They’ve pieced together three straight wins in district and substate play to get here, and they’ve battled through one of the state’s toughest leagues, the Little Hawkeye. They’re led by senior guard Trevor Grove (15.5), an efficient scorer who can do damage from anywhere on the floor. 6-6 post Brody Kleen adds some rim protection, and this group won’t be scared by anyone.
Why they can win it all: They’ve played the second toughest schedule in the field, and going through the Little Hawkeye Conference has certainly prepared them for the level of competition they’ll see here.
Chances they win it all: 5%. Like Solon last year, the Mustangs limped into the postseason and have gotten hot once bracket play hit. It didn’t work out well for the Spartans last year, we’ll see how it works out for DC-G this time around.
No. 8 seed: Atlantic (19-5)
About Atlantic: The Trojans enter the tournament having won seven straight games and boasting 3A’s fourth highest scoring offense at 68.5 points a game. They feature 6-7 point-forward Garrett Franken, a North Dakota signee, who is averaging 23.9 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists, to go with 51 steals and 46 blocks. A do-it-all player, he’ll be one of the most difficult players to match up with in the field. 6-6 junior forward Scott Leonard (14.9, 71.4 FG%) has proven to be a highly efficient player, and Austin Alexander pairs up with Franken to provide a dynamic duo of shooting. According to BC Moore’s power rankings, they’ve played the weakest schedule in the 3A field, but they’ve also got one of the best players in the group, so they’re dangerous.
Why they can win it all: Garrett Franken is one of the best players in the field, and his size and skill combination is going to be really tough to match up with. They’ve got an efficient, high-powered offense that can put points on the board in a hurry.
Chances they win it all: 5%. Some people have made the argument (one I don’t necessarily agree with) that the top three teams in the 3A field are in the top half of the bracket (Waverly-Shell Rock, Cedar Rapids Xavier, Mount Pleasant), which would make for an extremely difficult road for the Trojans to overcome. Still, there’s an old saying in poker “a chip and a chair”, meaning they’ve got a chance until they get knocked out, and with Franken, they’ll have a chance in every game.
Our Picks
Tony
Quarterfinals: Waverly-Shell Rock, Cedar Rapids Xavier, West Delaware, Pella
Semifinals: Cedar Rapids Xavier, Pella
Champion: Cedar Rapids Xavier
T.J.
Quarterfinals: Waverly-Shell Rock, Cedar Rapids Xavier, West Delaware, Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Semifinals: Cedar Rapids Xavier, Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Champion: Cedar Rapids Xavier
Travis
Quarterfinals: Waverly-Shell Rock, Cedar Rapids Xavier, West Delaware, Pella
Semifinals: Waverly-Shell Rock, West Delaware
Champion: Waverly-Shell Rock