4A State Tournament Preview
No.1 Seed: Iowa City West (20-3)
About: Per usual, the Trojans have an embarrassing wealth of talent. This season they come to Des Moines armed with the top two prospects in 2017, Connor McCaffery and Devontae Lane, and the top prospect in 2019, Patrick McCaffery. Two of their three losses came to out-of-state Midwest powers.
Why they can win it all? Because they have more talent than any other team in the 4A field.
Chances of winning it all? 33%. This would be higher, but the Trojans have been overwhelming favorites each of the last two seasons and have come away empty-handed. So we’re tapering our expectations a bit this season.
No. 2 Seed: Valley (19-4)
About: Last season’s 4A champs are back after a hard-fought overtime win over a very talented Hoover squad. Also back, is All-State combo-forward Quinton Curry. The big and bouncy senior will look to lead his team to another title after returning from an ACL injury he sustained last June.
Why they could win it all? They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, have their star senior leader back, and have ton of size.
Chances of winning it all? 12%. They have the experience and they are at full strength. That Hoover win was very telling as to how far this Valley team has come. They lost to Hoover by 15 earlier in the season.
No. 3 Seed: Bettendorf (18-5)
About: This balanced Bulldogs squad from the eastern edge of the state have been seemingly overlooked all season. But they come into the tournament with a stong 3-seed. Sophomore DJ Carton leads the team in assists and points, and JMichael Young ranks high on our 2017 prospect chart.
Why they could win win it all? Davenport Central was a pretty good 4A squad, it finished 17-5 this season. Bettendorf beat those Blue Devils by 23 and 27 points. That’s a telling example of how good the Bulldogs can be.
Chances of winning it all: 7%. Iowa City West would be very tough to beat should they get that far. And it will be very tough to get that far.
No. 4 Seed: Dubuque, Hempstead (18-5)
About: The rest of the state might be surprised to see the Mustangs in their first-ever trip to the State Tournament, but not us. We saw Keith Johnson shred the competition at our Top 250 Expo last fall. And he’s got some good company on his Hempstead squad.
Why they could win it all? They have great size across the board, no one is huge, but Johnson is 6-foot-5 and lengthy, and the Duax brothers, Lucas and Connor, go 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-5. They only lost to Iowa City West by six back in December.
Chances they could win it all: 15%. Don’t let the tame numbers fool you, Johnson is a bonafide star — Iowa’s 15th-ranked 2018 — and he’s the X-factor on this very talented squad.
No. 5 Seed: Cedar Rapids Kennedy (18-5)
About: The Cougars are no strangers to the State Tournament, this is their 15th trip all-time. After a first-round bye, they defeated two quality opponents, Mason City and Cedar Falls, to get here.
Why they can win it all? Drake Brewster and Derrick Diggins are one of the better one-two punches in all of 4A, and if they can get hot at and stay hot, then there’s a chance…
Chances they win it all: 4%…albeit a slight chance. Iowa City West beat the Cougars by 30, 83-53, on Jan. 31st.
No. 6 Seed: Sioux City East (21-2)
About: There’s lots of star-power here with sophomore Aidan Vanderloo, junior Van Rees and senior Sioux City North transfer Jailen Billings. The Black Raiders lost to rival Bishop Heelan by five in late-January, that was their only in-state loss. Minnesota’s DeLasalle shellacked them by 25 in early-February.
Why they can win it all? Rees is a 6-foot-6 combo-forward and will be able to hold down the paint. Vanderloo is one of the state’s best shooters, he’s connecting on an absurd 58 percent of his 3s this season. Billings is a flat-out playmaker.
Chances they win it all? 12%. These are some of the best odds in the field, and certainly better than the 6-seed would suggest. They are talented and hot, and that 16-point win over a very good Council Bluffs Lincoln squad in a substate final is telling.
No. 7 Seed: Des Moines North (18-5)
About: It’s the Polar Bears’ first trip to State since 1991, and they are red-hot to pair with their immense talent. Tyreke Locure is Iowa’s second-ranked 2019, and has been shredding defenses in the CIML for two years now. Senior small-forward Jal Bijiek is a rangy 6-foot-7 rim-wrecker.
Why they can win it all? They are fast, athletic and skilled. And in addition to their two superstars is a slew of capable role players.
Chances of winning it all: 15%. The No.7-seed seems low, and they beat their first-round opponent, No.2-seed Valley 85-78, in mid-January. That was the second win in their current 12-game streak, the Polar Bears are dangerous.
No. 8 Seed: Newton (19-5)
About: They play in a primarily 3A conference, the Little Hawkeye, but that conference is one of the best in the state — regardless of class. People may underestimate the Cardinals because of it, but that’s be a mistake.
Why they can win it all? They beat Dowling and Johnston on their warpath to State, and those wins were no flukes. Connor Gholson and Garrett Sturtz are both big-time high school players, certainly capable of carrying a team to an upset win. And the Cardinals will come in and give a 100 percent effort, all of their guys have high-motors.
Chances of winning it all: 4%. The Iowa City West match-up will be tough; that’s the bad news. The good news: if they can somehow get by the mighty Trojans, they’re odds increase exponentially.
Our Picks
Tony
Quarterfinals: Iowa City West, Hempstead, Valley, Sioux City East
Semifinals: Iowa City West, Valley
Champion: Iowa City West