STATE TOURNAMENT: 4A Preview
No. 1 seed: Pleasant Valley (22-1)
About Pleasant Valley: Last year’s runners-up have been sensational this season, nearly pulling off an unbeaten regular season — but a one point loss to Muscatine spoiled that. Regardless, the Spartans have done what they needed to, and earned their top-seed. Northern Michigan commit Will Carius (6’6 F) brings superstar quality to the table, he averaged 21.7 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this regular season.
Why they can win it all: Experience and talent are rampant on this team, and those are two definitive foundations of championship teams.
Chances they win it all: Though the Spartans are the top-seed, we are not considering them the favorites here. But let’s say if they won it all, we wouldn’t be surprised.
No. 2 seed: Council Bluffs Lincoln (22-1)
About CB Lincoln: Maybe they don’t get the attention they deserve being way out on the western edge of the state, but these guys can ball. They defeated a very good Sioux City East team in a substate final — it was their third win against the Black Raiders. Tony Bonner is one of the state’s best big-men. He will be the difference-maker for this team in Des Moines.
Why they could win it all: Despite playing a weaker schedule than most other 4A teams, we consider the Lynx’s sterling 22-1 record to be legit. Bonner is dominant down low, and Kyle Crowl is one of the state’s best shooters. That inside-outside combo will be tough to stop.
Chances they win it all: Not likely, but possible. We’d be a little bit surprised if the Lynx — though very talented — come out of the field as champs. But it would not be a complete shocker.
No. 3 seed: Des Moines Hoover (21-2)
About Des Moines Hoover: Defense, defense, defense. The Huskies only allow 44 points per game defensively, and they only gave up 24 in their substate final win over Ames. They lack an elite shooter, but senior guard Y’vez Quinn is as quick as they come. Douglas Wilson is their star player — an athletic 6-foot-6 center.
Why they could win it all: Staunch defense, and athleticism at all five positions.
Chances they win it all: Not great. They have the unfortunate task of playing a supremely talented Iowa City West squad in the opening round. If the Huskies can get past that one, their chances vastly improve.
No. 4 seed: Dowling Catholic (20-3)
About Dowling Catholic: The Maroons have been outperforming seemingly everybody’s expectations all year. The fact is, they are a big, long, and talented group of guys — no longer a “surprise” team. Ted Brown is a bulky 6-foot-10 center. Joey Kern has been a breakout player in the state. Sam Ingoli is our 2nd-ranked 2018. While Cole Scieszinski and Luke Eastman are both lengthy 6-foot-6 wings.
Why they could win it all: Talent, length, size….what more do you need to know. The Maroons are the full package. A quintessential basketball team.
Chances they win it all: They might. Even a team as good as Dowling is not safe in this supremely talented group of teams. But they have just about as good of a chance — if not better — than either of the top two seeds.
No. 5 seed: Valley (20-3)
About Valley: The Tigers were the top-ranked 4A team for much of the season, and rightfully so. They have a terrific trip of Carlo Marble, Turner Scott, and Quinton Curry — all top-15 guys in their respective classes. They’ve been very focused since postseason started – destroying a red-hot Roosevelt team by 24, and then knifing through Ankeny Centennial 68-51.
Why they could win it all: Senior point guard Turner Scott is revered by coaches and players around the state and is one of the toughest guys in Iowa. The Truman State signee could will his team to state title, with help from a supremely talented cast around him.
Chances they win it all: Better than their No. 5 seed would indicate. Not the favorites, that’s reserved for the No. 6 seed — weird, we know. But the Tigers might be the second best team in the field.
No. 6 seed: Iowa City West (19-4)
About Iowa City West: The fact that this team even lost four games in the regular season is baffling. Based upon individual talent, they are by far-and-away the best team. And since their last loss on Feb 12 (Iowa City High), the Trojans have won by 30, 20, 25, and 20. But the fact remains, they are vulnerable. And the four losses should serve as a red flag.
Why they could win at all: Sheer talent. Connor Mccaffery and Patrick McCaffery are each the top player in their respective classes, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Wali Parks is fourth in 2016, Tanner Lohaus in fifth in 2016. Devontae Lane is our third-ranked 2017. So, ya.
Chances they win it all: We’d be a lot more confident in their chances had they not encountered so many lapses throughout the regular season. But they are still the favorite here. If they don’t take home a title, it would be a huge disappointment.
No. 7 seed: Cedar Falls
About Cedar Falls: They are very young, but supremely talented. We’re starting to get the feeling that sophomore AJ Green may have a breakout week. If you didn’t know about him before you’ll know about him soon. Green hit a game-winner and scored 31 points during a mild upset win over Linn-Mar in the substate final.
Why they could win it all: Green has blossomed into one of the state’s top point guards — regardless of class — in the state. He’s not the only star on the team though; Tra’Von Fagan is a Division II prospect who can beat you inside and out. Cedar Falls is by no means an easy out.
Chances they win it all: Not very good. Yes they are talented, but so is every other team in the field. The Tigers’ time will come, but it probably won’t be this season. Consider them the team of the future.
No. 8 seed: Dubuque, Senior
About Dubuque, Senior: After losing four out of five coming into postseason play, the Rams promptly knocked off North Scott and then Dubuque, Hempstead to make their pseudo-surprise run to state (pseudo because they played in the easiest substate) The Rams are 14-10, and do have a couple nice wins this season. Like Cedar Falls, the Rams are a very young team — three of their five starters are underclassmen.
Why they could win it all: Because anything is possible… But seriously, they did beat Dubuque, Wahlert back in January, and if they can capture whatever they had that night for a few games in Des Moines, then there’s always a chance.
Chances they win it all: Slim to none. There are just too many elite teams in the group to consider the Rams a legitimate threat. But watch out for this team over the next two seasons. Maybe a Cedar Falls vs Dubuque, Senior state final is on the cards for 2018.
Our Picks
Quarterfinals: Pleasant Valley, Valley, Council Bluffs Lincoln, Iowa City West
Semifinals: Valley, Iowa City West
Champion: Iowa City West
Quarterfinals: Pleasant Valley, Dowling, Cedar Falls, Iowa City West
Semifinals: Dowling, Iowa City West
Champion: Iowa City West
Quarterfinals: Pleasant Valley, Valley, Cedar Falls, Iowa City West
Semifinals: Valley, Iowa City West
Champion: Iowa City West